Bitcoin one week away from fully confirming full blown bear mark

2021年5月17日

We will be looking at a confluence of three indicators and their close next week for me to formally call the beginning of a bull market that could last over a year.

• 20 Week SMA. Some people are watching the 21 week EMA and there is little distinction between the two, except the 20W is more important because it is the basis of the weekly bollinger band. If BTC slips the 20w then the bears have a very solid place to look at shorting, and bulls have a place to take profits, and that is the top of the weekly bollinger band or the 20w, depending on what your charting is showing you. DYOR on the last bear market if you wish.
  
• Volatility Stop. A great indicator to help you determine the trend and place stops. It can also help you visualize dynamic support and resistance. It is based off of the Average True range, another fantastic indicator that helps spot when an asset is in accumulation. That may be important in a year or so
  
• Volatility Stop Multiple Time Frame. I have set this to 3x, so this basically shows the 3 week volatility stop. Combined with default Vstop it helps confirm super-bearish or bullish trends. When the VSTOP is broken the red arrow appears and we wait for confirmation. That is where we are now after the weekly close. If we close with the price action below the MFT of 47,948.22, the MTF flips bearish and the magenta line begins.
  

After the two impulses with the arrows price action closes below the 20 week SMA and has double flipped the MTF VSTOP and the VStop. The red X shows I don't consider the price action as fitting the pattern because in one weekly candle the price ranged over 82% and we clearly have not seen that scenario occur since then.

Watchlist
The 20 week value as I write this is 49K and the MTF VSTOP is 47.9k. If price closes between that narrow range (unlikely) then there would have been a while lot of volatiliy in the market. If it ends above the 20w SMA some how then we need to tunnel down and reassess. The most likely scenario right now? Price action closes below the 20w and the MFT VSTOP and the bear market is confirmed by some very powerful indicators.

As always, please see the linked ideas for some larger context. My personal plan is to look to short what I want to short up until BTC is in the blue area, which seems very similar to me as the last run up to previous bull market ATH to bear market. I will want to see some resistance and support to play as well as the NVT in the green on the daily. That will be a great chance to make or lose some money. I don't have any buy orders on the books just yet.


For an investment long if this does flip fully bearish you would be looking for BTC to be down at least 70-80% from ATH and with the NVT in the green on the weekly and absent any bearish structure, like a massive descending triangle like we saw in 2018.

2021年5月27日

註釋

I am a bit late but you can see that the confirmation has come in on the weekly chart. Still plenty of chances for relief rallies and all that but the bias is bearish for the longer moves.