5800$ is still possible but don't think the bear market is over.

2019年4月10日

I do believe in Bitcoin but I still think it is a risk-on asset that will be heavily dumped at the beginning of the coming stock market crash.
During a market crash, investors usually put their money on risk-off assets such as bonds and/or the ones that brings a cash flow (i.e. with dividends).
I expect at least a retest of the $3200k but falling to 2400$ or even 1150$ is not impossible for me.
Next bull run will only come after that and I expect it to be massive if it happens.

2019年4月11日

註釋

Unless BTC breaks below 4240$ I still expect a last pump before a major dump.

2019年4月11日

註釋

Here are two graphs describing a possible evolution of the price of Bitcoin with a big dump without an initiating pump. On the second graph you can see that the wave 4 retraces too much and overlap with the wave 1. That invalidates the scenario of a big dump without a first retest a bit above 5475$. My short position is however still open with a tight stop loss in case the initiating pump does not happen.

1st graph


2nd graph

2019年4月11日

註釋

2019年4月11日

交易結束：目標達成

Short closed.
Long opened.
Short will be opened again at +/- 5800$

2019年4月12日

註釋

My current expectations. To be updated at each wave.

2019年4月13日

註釋

We are probably still in a corrective wave that is a flat ABC as shown below. In a defensive measure I am closing my long position at +/-5190$ and probably will open a short position. This short will be placed with the only purpose to not lose the train in case Bitcoin starts its major fall to 3k$ and below.

2019年4月13日

手動結束交易

Position closed. I am waiting for a better opportunity.

Here is another possible development:

2019年4月14日

註釋

My expectations right now:

2019年4月16日

註釋