BTC a new wave up? or a bull trap?

Hi guys! today, it was such a bad day for me. those of you guys who follow me will know. my trading plan was
opening short positions at 65.7~8 level, with stoploss at 6640. oh no! stop reached! this is why i do not under evaluate BTC, when short positions are so high, when ETF approval might happen in few days. i did have my short position at 6800 filled in though, so i really just broke even on this trade. oh, what a scary jump all the way to 6890 for shorters! there must be people who lost much money on this trade, with bitmex closed with server modification with 30 minutes.

ok. even though, we must see the chart what is going on!

first of all, i think this bounce is really BULLISH, very. in the past, short term rallies we have not touched daily 50ma/ or 50ema. today, bitfinex touched 50ema, while bitmex, with craziness went to 7100!!
daily 50ma/50ema, is considered a 'start of a new bull run', even though it is short term lived. today, we
just touched it, but just touching it is bullish, which indicates what the market is trying to do.

also, if we see such bullishness, we would not see heavy retracement. daily 21ema is 6630~40 area, so
i think we can expect a retracement to that level. if tomorrow's candle closes above 21ema daily, it sure
will come back to 67, 68 or even more tomorrow before the ETF.

This ETF news that coming up is so volatile, really, if not approved market will collapse to 6k+below,
if approved 7.1k+. one single news will make BTC more volatile then ever, so really, at times like this,
it isn't so good to trade.

anyway, i do see a rising wedge, which can target 7.1~7.2k, which can be also the primary target of a inverse H&S, which, in the middle term is bearish, but, if ETF happens to be approved no such thing as rising wedge or
bearishness, i think it will shoot up to 7.5k. so! ETF will make this a new wave up, or a massive bull trap. everything will happen on 23rd!

i personally think this is a bull trap, however, it did touch 50ema daily, which is very bullish, with daily MACD with a slight golden cross. so, we might see these big moves up for next 2 days again.

so trading plan, i think today needs to be little careful. because, we need to see where btc will retrace to.
if it retraces below 66 to like 65.8 or 65.3, i think 67~68 can be a double top to enter short, but, if it will only retrace to 66.8 or 66.5, and 66.2 at the most, double top 67~68 can be possible, but also a shoot up to 6.9~7k is very likely! if tomorrow's candle closes above 66.5, or 67, it is very bullish, you should sell your shorts entered at 66, 67 zone right away.

so trading plans are.

1. open longs
65.8~66.2(for safety you can wait until tomorrow, and see if it closes above 6630, or see if retracement ends at 66.2 today)
target:6740/6830
stoploss:6540

2. open shorts
-first entry 6800ish
second entry 6900ish
third entry 7130~40
stop loss:7200
->this can be opened with time, take time now. maybe on 23rd, after the approval can be better.
be careful trading!!

註釋

guys, today, entry point for long 65.8~66.2, might come. if that is risky for you, you can wait for 6480~6500 area, however, there should be a 100 dollar bounce at least at 65.8~66.2. since the EFT decision is only left 2 days, whales might not want to push too low, who knows.

註釋

btc rebounded from 6630, little short from our entry. see how powerful btc is. however, if 6800 is not reached, it can try more bottom levels. so watch out~

註釋

guys if our buying zone comes, 6580~6620, don't all in. buy like 6583/6558/6504. most likely 6583 will be bought not below levels, but do not be so greedy. tp can be 6680/6740/68+@, safe is just a 100~150 dollar profit. retest to 67/68 can take some time, but it should come before that eth decision.

註釋

ok. btc might come down or not. this is what i wrote above, if this only retrace to 66.2~3, above 21ema, and close tomorrow morning, it will indicate a bullish momentum, which, could take challenge up to 7000/7100 as the above rising wedge plays out. or, if this retrace to 64 or 65 double top at 67/68 is possible, but it looks like btc is holding so well. i recommend no short until before/after the etf approval guys. super dangerous.

手動結束交易

ok. this market, the volatility, manipulation cannot be followed in a classic way. it dropped to 6394, almost the bottom of the rising wedge just like in few minutes, this kind of massive drop, no ta could expect. many ta's expect 65 or 64 as long position entry, me too, we see support levels for each peak. now this dropped to 6390ish, insane.

註釋

Btc hit the bottom of the rising wedge and bounced. I think it has a chance to go up. Last run before the etf decision. Maybe 65~66 more to 67 68.The top of the wedge should be 69~70.

註釋

Guys!seems like proshare ETF got rejected by the sec..anything can happen,looks like a bull flag but thats the charts news ruins everything.i will stay out of market until clear direction.

註釋

we have a shooting star on daily, my plan is buy whatever that comes up high today, maybe 65, even more 67, this candle usually indicates the continuation of a drop, probably to retest 6k or below. the market after ETF is denied, bears took in control. it seems that bulls are pushing, but it is usually a technical bounce, so we could expect more drops until this week. so 65,66 might come, 67 might come, it might not come, but just try to get your openings.