Bitcoin Long-Term Cycles and Weakness

Bitcoin's halving cycle has created local highs and lows every 2 years around December. If this cycle is extrapolated forward, then we have have experienced a local high in November 2021. If that is the case, previous cycle lows have held in the 23.6% to 38.2% retracement level of the previous cycle extremes.

For example, the 2014-2015 low fell within the 23.6%-38.2% retracement of the 2011-2013 up cycle. The low in 2018 again fell within the 23.6%-38.2% retracement of the 2015-2017 up cycle.

If the similar path holds, then 24k-33k is a potential target zone for the coming weak cycle.

Even though bitcoin may not be experiencing a robust uptrend, there are many new projects that do explode higher in price. We'll keep an eye out to find markets on the move.