BTC/USD – Critical Reversal or Breakout?

Bitcoin is currently trading around $107,500, pressing against the upper boundary of a rising wedge on the 1H and 4H charts. The structure remains fragile, with weakening momentum and conflicting signals between short and mid-term indicators.

📌 Scenario 1 – Bearish:

The current move likely completes wave (b) of an ABC correction.

Price has reached ~0.735 retracement at $108,358.

Breakdown of wedge support (~$104,600) could activate wave (c) toward $101K–$98K, or even the 1.618 extension to $86,000 (seen on daily).

📈 Scenario 2 – Bullish Alternate:

If BTC breaks and closes above $108,500, with volume, we may have invalidation of wave (b).

This opens the door for a wave (5) extension toward $113,000.

🔍 Key Indicators:

RSI on 1H is weakening, under 50.

OBV is flat – no accumulation spike.

QQE shows Buy signals but lacks follow-through.

Volume remains unconvincing for continuation.

🎯 Conclusion:
BTC is at a make-or-break level. A clean breakout and retest above $108.5K flips the structure bullish. Until then, wedge breakdown is the higher-probability play. Watch the $104.6K zone closely for direction confirmation.