#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
I said that below 62300, it’s over for the bulls and also that the down move will probably be faster than the up move. Both happened this week and we will make new lows over the next weeks. As I’m writing this we are at 57817 and falling like a rock. Will look for shorts only from here on and any pullback will probably do. Will see 50000 very soon.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bull trend is done. I don’t think bitcoin will see 70k for a couple of years and we are heading for 50000 over the next days to weeks and then 40000 probably this year. Bulls have a small chance to find more buyers at the previous bull trend line from 2023-10, when adjusted, could fit with the July lows but it’s not a great probability. For that they would need to stop the selling above 56000 and by this selling speed, we would get there by Tuesday/Wednesday. For now we have a very tight bear channel down, which indeed was stronger than the up move, so far.
current market cycle: Trading range or very broad bear channel, since we are making lower highs and lower lows over the last 3 months.
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls touched 70000 and boi did those disappointed bulls use that price to sell out of their longs. Market never looked back since and we are 10000 points lower again. Only thing bulls can pray for now, is a higher low above 53000, to keep a trading range going but other than that, nothing. Personally I do think that was the dead cat bounce and below 50000 we will see some real pain for Bitcoin. If bulls manage to get above 66000 again, I was wrong and we move more sideways.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels.
Invalidation is above 66000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 60350. The high was 70015. I was wrong about market won’t print 70000 but right about the reversal. I consider a 15 point miss in Bitcoin pretty amazing.
short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 3000 points above the recent low of 53500. Since market had it’s dead cat bounce, I consider the last bigger pullback to be done and we will get much lower lows over the next months and more shallow pullbacks.
current swing trade: none
chart update: Bull trend line is gone, added tight bear channel and adjusted the broken bull trend line from 2023-10 to be a potential support line next week.
tl;dr
I said that below 62300, it’s over for the bulls and also that the down move will probably be faster than the up move. Both happened this week and we will make new lows over the next weeks. As I’m writing this we are at 57817 and falling like a rock. Will look for shorts only from here on and any pullback will probably do. Will see 50000 very soon.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bull trend stalling and market went sideways for a week. Bulls want to touch the bear trend line around 71000 again and bears want to break the bull trend line and drop below 63000 again. Simple as that. Will buy on strong momentum up and only consider shorts once the bull trend line is broken.
comment: Bull trend is done. I don’t think bitcoin will see 70k for a couple of years and we are heading for 50000 over the next days to weeks and then 40000 probably this year. Bulls have a small chance to find more buyers at the previous bull trend line from 2023-10, when adjusted, could fit with the July lows but it’s not a great probability. For that they would need to stop the selling above 56000 and by this selling speed, we would get there by Tuesday/Wednesday. For now we have a very tight bear channel down, which indeed was stronger than the up move, so far.
current market cycle: Trading range or very broad bear channel, since we are making lower highs and lower lows over the last 3 months.
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls touched 70000 and boi did those disappointed bulls use that price to sell out of their longs. Market never looked back since and we are 10000 points lower again. Only thing bulls can pray for now, is a higher low above 53000, to keep a trading range going but other than that, nothing. Personally I do think that was the dead cat bounce and below 50000 we will see some real pain for Bitcoin. If bulls manage to get above 66000 again, I was wrong and we move more sideways.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels.
Invalidation is above 66000.
outlook last week:
short term: neutral. My best guess is that market is not able to reach 70000 again and reverse over the next days. Obviously too early to talk about shorts but I have no interest in longs above 66000.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68000 and now we are at 60350. The high was 70015. I was wrong about market won’t print 70000 but right about the reversal. I consider a 15 point miss in Bitcoin pretty amazing.
short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 3000 points above the recent low of 53500. Since market had it’s dead cat bounce, I consider the last bigger pullback to be done and we will get much lower lows over the next months and more shallow pullbacks.
current swing trade: none
chart update: Bull trend line is gone, added tight bear channel and adjusted the broken bull trend line from 2023-10 to be a potential support line next week.
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