BTC: Does Your Wyckoff Hypothesis Have Support by the Indicators

已更新

Hi Everyone! In the event you see a "pattern" which appears to be a particular kind of Wyckoff Schematic (Whether it be an Accumulation Schematic or Distribution Schematic), we should ALWAYS have a look at our indicators to see if those indicators support our "hypothesis." If our indicators do NOT support our "hypothesis" at that particular time, then we should NOT conclude our hypothesis has a high probability of playing out UNTIL our indicators begin to show a higher probability of actually playing out that hypothesis.

In my opinion, we have just begun ANOTHER Sign of Strength in Phase E of a MACRO Accumulation Schematic. Yes, I believe we are in Phase E of MACRO Accumulation. You can have multiple Sign of Strength events in Phase E of MACRO Accumulation. Such as the many Sign of Strength events we had in Phase E of 2016 and 2017 MACRO Accumulation. Those multiple Sign of Strength events are often referred to as ""Stepping Stones" to higher highs; one after another until we finally reach a Buying Climax in Phase A of MAJOR Distribution.

Is it possible we could be in Phase C of RE-Distribution? Sure, it's possible. However, what are the "probabilities" of us actually being in a period of RE-Distribution based on the indicators? Well, at this present time, the indicators show no support at all of us being in a period of RE-Distribution; resulting in a pullback to the 30K to price range. I just don't see that at present. In fact, I see more support in the indicators that we are currently working on Sign of Strength event #2 (Stepping Stone #2) in Phase E of MACRO Accumulation. AND this Sign of Strength #2 is NOT done yet. This is my opinion of course.

We would have to see some major changes begin in the short term group of time frames (1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h and 8h) with major turn to downward pressure before I would even consider this. What would constitute the beginning of DOWNWARD PRESSURE? We would require the Red Line falling below Yellow Level 50 in Phoenix Ascending indicator before downward pressure is actually "triggered." Has the Red Line falling below Level 50 in the 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h and 8h time frames? No... Therefore, I would only say there is a CHANCE of a period of RE-Distribution "IF" we begin to see the Red Line in the 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h and 8h time frames fall below Yellow Level 50. If this does not happen, I must conclude we are in a Sign of Strength event that has not completed yet.

I hope this opinion was helpful.

Happy Trading and Stay Awesome, Everyone!

David

註釋

UPDATE:

NOTE the level of the Red Line in the 3-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour and 8-hour time frames in the chart below. We do not see the Red Line beginning to turn down and fall DOWN FROM White Level 70 to provide support for the price to fall DOWN FROM the White Upper B-Band. Since we do not see this, we cannot say WITH CONFIDENCE that 50K has lost support and the price action is about to turn down; resulting in a period of RE-Distribution. We simply should not suggest that at this juncture. We COULD "suggest" this COULD occur; PROVIDING the Red Line falls DOWN FROM the White Level 70 in the 3-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour and 8-hour time frame for sstarters. BUT, it would have to continue into the 12-hour, 24-hour, 2-Day and 3-Day time frames as well.

So, if we are to see a period of RE-Distribution, the Red Line in the 3-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour and 8-hour need to get a move on going DOWN FROM White Level 70. Especially, if the price is anticipated to fall down to the 30K to price range.

註釋

UPDATE:

What was I about to add at the end of this video before my 20-minute limit was reached?

I was about to say, "Once we reach the PEAK of Sign of Strength event #2 and get a pullback, I would be surprised if that pullback results in a pullback so deep we fall down to the 30K to price range. Could we maybe pullback to 40K? Maybe... It depends on how high we go with the current Sign of Strength event #2.

註釋

UPDATE:

Here is the 6-Week time frame below. Odds are very low for nearly a 39 percent move to the downside from current price. Especially, with the Red and Blue Lines both currently above White Level 70. If price action did fall dramatically, I would expect the Magenta Upper B-Band at $37,000 to be the lowest. Reminder: The Red Line in the 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h and 12h is still above White Level 70. So, I don't believe we are falling dramatically anytime soon. I believe we are still working on our current Sign of Strength event that has NOT seen its "peak" yet.

Here is the 6-Week: