Bitcoin analysis | 6700 res. | ETF short setup | 7000 trendline

已更新

Good morning community,
In this analysis I've discussed the following points:
1. BTC found some higher lows and moved out of the descending parallel channel
2. It is now facing a prev. resistance level of 6500-6600 zone where I believe shorts could be filing their positions again
3. If you are playing with alts or longs in BTC, I'd be careful here
4. The descending trendline meets us near $7000 which is something that has held us down for the last 3 months
5. I am still bearish in the short/medium term so I do not believe that this is the move for the next bull cycle. I will be more than happy to be proven wrong
6. Higher time frames still show largely bearish signs. But I do understand that bull markets do start inside of bear markets. However, the volume hasn't shown capitulation nor do I see a prolonged accumulation period
7. With the ETF decision near the end of the month, this could be a setup for a bull trap (pump price up then dump w/ bad news)
8. The TD sequential and Ichi cloud are two of my favorite indicators to use in tangent and for the last dump from $7400 they were giving sell signals to the tee. I will be paying more attention to these for the current move
9. The OBV is still rising in a parallel channel in smaller time frames but is still in a largely declining posture

This move as a whole does not make sense to me and I will not trade it unless I see a better setup. Part of learning how to trade or invest is you realize that you have to sacrifice x% of gains trying to catch the bottom for an OK setup, if you want to increase your win/loss ratio. However, in our community, I have been providing trade opportunities to scalp 3-4% here and there and quickly exit. This makes trading fun, fairly risk-free, and alleviates the time necessary to be constantly tuned into the market.

If I were a betting man, I'd say this move moves to $6700 and dumps or at most moves toward trend line resistance at ~$7000 and dumps back down again. If we do move past $6800, we can expect a big short squeeze and I doubt they are going to give up their position of such staggering heights just yet. Again, I am still expecting the fresh demand zone of $5500 as my next big target under the low of June. As $5500 was the support from last year before a move to the upside.

Thanks for watching, listening and reading. Much love!

評論

Weekly RSI still stuck in a descending parallel channel + consistently creating lower high's since January 2018

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The total crypto market capitalization is shown. We've gone from the high of 800B+ to now ~200B. So about 600B have been taken out of the market in that entire mov down. The next support for the market cap, in my opinion, is in between the large rectangular box of 155B to 183B. Let's watch and see.

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Bitcoin dominance still climbing

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There is a tightening of prices within this blue symmetrical triangle being created

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If there's any particular area to watch on the 1D chart for BTC, it is around the $6600-6800 area. We have multiple indicators converging there. The 50 MA (red), the 100 MA (blue), the middle bollinger band (yellow) and the tenkan-sen line (light blue) from the Ichimoku cloud.

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4h chart shows a 9 on the green. May have a 1-4 candle correction here or push and complete 13 to the upside. If we do that, we may be coming up right to the top of the cloud which completes our resistance chart from the 1D (shown above). Then both 4h and 1d chart would give you signals of resistance + reversal.

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On the 30m tf, BTC needs to break and close some 30m candles above $6480. This would ensure that the kijun line is not acting as resistance and that would also keep creating higher lows for us. Staying above the cloud will also be a positive sign and helping keep the TK bull cross active (tenkan above kijun).

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Potential fractal

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Why we struggled to break through $6600. You can see this displayed by the horizontal line around $6584 that previously the yellow ellipses clearly show this as a level to break through as resistance or use as support. We are struggling at the same level this time around. Let's see if we can break through on our second attempt.

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BTC Update:

We want to close above the blue and not close below the red on this daily candle. If we close above the blue this will hopefully give us some momentum for tomorrow toward that $6800 target. If we close below we may pull back further toward $6400. Less than 1 hour left in today's daily close.

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Some resistance and supports I'm finding in BTC and ETH

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Still within the bounds of the larger sideways ranging channels of $6466 and $6570. If we break below look for the $6389 support to hold us. Uptrend still intact.