Here we have 1d BTC: - blue dashed line is simple linear regression (days/close price). - rainbow-line is Hull Moving Average 100 days. - green-red-line is simple Moving Average 400 days. - grey line is Moving Average 800days, - middle green doted line (between the previous two) is WEEKLY MA20-STDEV20 (see Bollinger Bands) - and than standard Coppock and simple SMI Ergodic Indicator.
Looking at how events unfold at 2014, I think the downtrend is here to stay: - probably on the long run (meaning 2018), we might see BTC under MA800day, which means BTC might be under 3k in 2018. - as for mid-term (March-April-May) BTC might bounce back at ~6.5k and/or at ~5k.
This is NOT a trading advise, just my biased ideas...use stop-sell, always calculate risk and try to avoid FOMO. Criticism welcome!