BTC forget $75K

2021年10月24日

Since the sharp reversal from the all-time new highs in the 67Kish area, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness in the short term. It goes without saying that bullish sentiment was rampant at the top, too bullish. When I use wave analysis, I have enough experience to know one cannot even trust his own count blindly. For me, I use them to differentiate impulsive and corrective behaviour and build scenarios I can work with while allowing me the flexibility of changing it on a dime if warranted by market conditions.

Why is price action weak?. In any market, when you break a support, we all know it becomes the new resistance and when 62K was broken, BTC dived to 58.4K within a couple of hours. In a strong bull market, that dip would have fallowed almost immediately with a retest of 62K. Now 48 hours later we haven't even come close to it. Instead, BTC is testing and barely holding 58K

Just looking at the short term structure (hourly chart), I am working with an A-B-C correction already underway. The current consolidation seems to be the B wave before another sharp selloff starts. 53K should be a minimum target (1x wave A) and as deep as 49Kish (1.618 x wave A)

It's not a time to be a complacent bull.