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BTC to revisit bottom or make a new one before another wave up

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Got a lot new followers the\ past month and lot of people thanking me for my calls! That's awesome and I would like to thank you for liking and following my trades.

Before beginning my analysis, I would like to state that the following is my opinion, one that I will trade. This is a very high risk trade since BTC is in a "no-trade" area. However, I am deciding to trade since I can invest a part of the big profits I made lately, so I am comfortable losing that if that's the case. Also I noticed that some of the famous traders here on tradingview are quiet lately and posting few, if any, updates. If you decide to continue please be careful and use tight stop losses.

If you have been already following me than you probably know that I was bearish up until we hit the 200-ma on the weekly on BTC chart and the 50-ma on the monthly total crypto marketcap chart, as seen here:

We had a pretty big bounce from that level as we can see. After this bounce I become bullish as seen from my chart and predicted the first increase with a target of $4400. For those who followed the call I hope you are enjoying the profits, as well as from the short published thereafter. However, after the correction, I underestimated the resistances still packed above the price and mistakenly called for prices in the 5k range. Unfortunately bulls were not able to manage getting there. The reason why I called for 5k was because we bounced off the 200-ma weekly and the initial push seemed strong enough to test the 20-ma on the weekly chart (at the moment of this writing it is lined up at $5180). Don't get me wrong, sooner rather than later I am sure that we will try to test that level.

However, before doing so, I believe that we will revisit the previous bottom. Now, the 200-ma on the weekly is at $3275 so that is the first target of my trade. If price bounces of from there it would be a very bullish sign since it would be the 2nd bounce in few weeks and will cause a double bottom pattern, causing a faster recovery. If price doesn't hold and falls beneath there, then the next support level is the 20-ma on the monthly chart. If this level holds up, the recovery would be slower. In either case, a double bottom would be a very bullish scenario that should take us to test the 20-ma on the weekly. These, are the bullish scenario. Depending on which level it will bounce off, it would look something like this:

At the moment, BTC is at $3630 and seems struggling to go higher, however it is totally possible for the price to test $3730 before dumping down. Again, due to my large profits the past months (check out my previous calls), I can afford to lose some; therefore I will decide to buy back in if we get around $3800 and things seem bullish. However, if prices does go much higher from here and moves sideways in the following triangle, things will get ugly as we could be breaking down from a large pennant pattern:

Therefore, for things to stay bullish I would prefer a quick retest of the bottom or establishing a new one near the previous bottom. Meanwhile, if prices moves inside the triangle shown above then I will start to fear that bearish pennant could become reality.

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註釋

Bear flag on the daily:

註釋

Breakdown was not as big as I hoped and it stopped at a support area above $3500. A second breakdown attempt is on going now and if it fails then it gets very hard to predict. There is a chance that this could be a higher low and BTC goes up again to test the 4k level, but the biggest chance is a continued break down. Price action is very choppy, bots manipulation is clear given all these similar fractals these past few weeks. At the moment, it's literally anybody's guess. My advice is to not trade this price action, if you already have taken a position just keep it.

註釋

It appears very likely that BTC will try and retest the blue trendline I shown in my post. However, it will need much more conviction and volume from bulls otherwise it will fail again. It's currently located around $3600.

註釋

BTC almost reached the blue trendline, but it got rejected harshly. Chances increase for another breakdown. To me the obvious play here is to wait for BTC to close in between the falling trendline and the 200-ma on the weekly chart. Closing a week above it would provide a good bounce to break the falling trendline. It would be healthy and as a good bounce as seen on December 14th. Going up from here would just fail at the first resistance it finds.

註釋

So far we are on track with my idea. However, we are probably going to get a decision very soon. When analyzing triangles, we know that they are a continuation pattern, however, we do not know the exact moment the trend reverses, until later on when we have confirmation. For example, we have almost reached the end of this triangle, but will the triangle resolution follow the bigger trend, and break down? Or have reversed trend and now the triangle will follow the new trend and break up? Here's the two scenario.

Personally, I am still bearish. The weakness showed above 4k, despite bouncing off a long term support (200-ma weekly), and the one showed when reaching the blue trend line, was rather alarming. News are not bad nor good, and a high bullish sentiment, make me think that we will dump. How far? It's hard to predict because it's entirely possible that panic will set in if we lose support of the 200-ma on the weekly chart ($3280). So while theoretically, a big dump should be off the table, panic may bring it back. I think that even if we go up from here the rally would not last too long as if we reach a major resistance chances are people will take profit and sell. It does make sense for a healthy rally up to double bottom on the 200-ma weekly. Healthy because a double bottom is a powerful bullish reversal, and at that point I will be 100% we can reach 5k soon, or at least test the 20-ma on the weekly ($5050).

A quick look at the ichimoku cloud on the weekly:

We can see here that BTC this bear market always showed weakness even sustaining the conversion line (blue). And we are nearing it again.

On the daily ichimoku cloud we can see that we are under the red cloud, and the conversion line is still providing resistance. And a crossover between the conversion (blue) and the base (purple) lines does not seem likely at the moment. Another push caused by bouncing on support would be a very major bullish sign.

Other indicators like RSI and Stochastic don't give much indication, although they are still in the bearish zone.
However, we can see on the weekly chart, that BTC is showing a bear flag. And this is the first pattern I found that actually makes some sense. Zooming in shows irregular moves, fake wicks, and bart moves that don't provide any clue as to what the direction will be. This bear flag however will come into play if we close the week around this price zone or slightly above current prices. We can also see that volume is descending, which adds credibility to this bear flag.

So what does this all mean? Personally I am sitting on the sidelines since $4050, so I will stay as is. So I would personally discourage any trade around this price area. Nevertheless, if you do trade this price action, exercise caution because whales like to play the crypto folk so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of a sick "fake wick" of $100 or more and then breaking out in the opposite direction. Patience is key. As always, the above is my opinion and you should do your own research.

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手動結束交易

註釋

I closed the trade with early profit. Dump did not accelerate, it was a slow bleed over 1 day. This, and the descending volume add credibility to the possible play of a bullish wedge.