已更新

BTCUSD : short term/daily idea 18/10/15

Hi guys,

Heres my short update. NO count for now. too much volatility so I wont spam charts with all the possibilities that comes with.

And yes this impulse could be considered as a part of more major one but retracement has been too agressive so i discard it. I put it as simple impulse with full retracement to support

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So this is the count:
wave 3 is 1.618 of wave 1. Wave 5 is 3.618 of wave 1. ABC retracement the other pattern that i wont invest the time to count since this is 1 min chart.............

the rule for a potential major 1-2
• Wave 2 is typically 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1

Wave 2: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci red line below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern

Unlikely to be a next level 1-2. thats why i tend to have a full retracement as projection. BUt the result is the same = BOUNCE AFTER RETRACEMENT

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so if wave rules are respect the lvl 3rd target is 7.2k. WE MUST WAIT BEFORE MAKING THIS STATEMENT AS HIGHLY PROBABLE

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for now the full retracement idea is the most probable :

Im practicing. not playing this

註釋

if you wanna pactice too here the typical ratio :

Rules :
• Wave 2 is 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1
• Wave 3 is 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, or 323.6% of wave 1-2
• Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%
• There are three different ways to measure wave 5. First, wave 5 is inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4. Second, wave 5 is equal to wave 1. Third, wave 5 is 61.8% of wave 1-3

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So hypothesis and projection :

We should bounce near 6550

note that this is 3min. a lot of pattern can change fast. margin of error is high but overall this is my most probable bounce target

註釋

****bounce near 6250*** lol

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those 1min chart. im practicing. forgot the ABC levels ahah :

Anyway will back on some hours. no point following 1min per min

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Back to 4h chart. I might very well play this move finally :

Still expecting a corrective pattern

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if it doesnt go higher than 6493-6520 on coinbase this is gonna be a B :

交易結束：目標達成

This could be C of B. So i will put B as reached. I said previously : if it doesnt go higher than 6493-6520 on coinbase this is gonna be a B.

we touched 6490 with a full pull back.

1H MACD did exactly as projected.
if it doesnt go higher than 6493-6520 on coinbase this is gonna be a B

So lets wait and see

Last target for this post is C

註釋

wrong copy and paste lol :

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So for C. Same tools, same count, same projection, same everything but with 4H chart :

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C last target on going.

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I see five waves on bitfinex but not coinbase for the target C (C are made of 5 impulsives waves). Dont want to call too soon target reached. Will let some hours pass maybe a day.

交易結束：目標達成

could be target reached, higher price level tho. same trend line that all my idea was from have been hit. Now lets watch this 4h MACD potential bulissh crossover. New short term idea tmrw. :