BTC - Comparing May '21 Crashing Struture to Current Trading

2022年1月19日

First, know that I am an amateur technical analyst. I'm still learning about TA.
This is not financial advise. You should always do your own research. Consider this post as entertainment.
I'm simply sharing what I see in the charts and always welcome collaboration and feedback.

I'll lay out here why I think BTC isn't done dumping yet. I would love to be wrong, because I'd love nothing more than for all of us to be able to get on with things, but at this point in time I just don't see it in the cards.

I've been droning on about 'M ' and 'W' structures for months in a discord I participate in. More than a month ago I laid down four different coloured fractals, waiting for the market to tell me which fractal it is playing. About 1.5-2 weeks ago, the market told me Green, which is the May '21 crashing structure. I find this interesting, because May '21 was an Alt Season fake out and Dec '21 proved to be an Alt season fake out. I've been tracking the green fractal now closely over the past weeks. It's not been perfect, but it's the best match I've seen to date. Could there be another - yes, and I'm always looking.

Months ago I was going on about 'M' and 'W' patterns. Well the Green fractal gives us a short formed "M" pattern, which for the non-TA's is a bearish reversal in trend. The M pattern ends at the bottom of the green fractal, where we would then spring upwards towards the .702. Coming out of the M pattern, it looks like we will form an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the local .236 fib, giving the market the push it needs to get up to the .702 fib.

However, I'm not convinced at this point if we roll over to formally kick off alt season at the local .702 structure, or if BTC keeps going. I'm leaving the door open for BTC to keep going because we didn't hit the top of the Bitcoin Log Growth (BLG) indicator when we hit 69K in this cycle, which in my mind leaves room for more upside. If, however, BTC can't get above the BLG mid-line (around 72K), then alt season is confirmed. I have fractals taking us up to 92K, and some as high as 184K-200K - I'll save these for a future analysis if warranted.

I also ran fibs comparing May'21 crashing structure to the current crashing structure. You'll notice in 2016 BTC touched the 2.5 trend fib, with wicks down to the 2.702 fib. The green fractal lines up perfectly to touch the 2.5 fib, and I would therefore expect wicks down to the 2.702 fib, which puts us in a range of 36,164 to 33,478 for our mark down bottom, around Feb 4th-5th.

Again, don't trade on this analysis. I'm just sharing the world as I see it today.