BITCOIN breakdown IMPORTANT levels

2023年6月2日

As you can see, Bitcoin price has been traded in consolidation for quite some time.
Im using fib channel to ilustrate that picture, im not usualy using it to trade.
The price has been reacted on almost every level in channel, having in mind that upper middle is slightly bullish, lower middle is slightly bearish.
But as long as we are in that channel the long swing or short swing positions will be liquidated due to a price fluctuation, and thats why im taking short term trades as long as we are in this consolidation.

Now adding Volume profile to this picture, we can see that there is not much strenght for the bulls to turn things around.
They where defended the Value area twice, the big yellow pocket on the chart where there is a low volume to none, suggesting that if price breakdown to that level it will soar to 25k.
The next defence was now, bouncing of the middle fib channel, liqudating the short positions who where aiming for the 25k. Thats why only the short term trades are in place.

Next for the bull enthusiast, every time the price goes up, the sellers driving the price down even more to collect their stops and liquidity.
As you can see the price tested 3 times the top upper channel, failing to breakthrough, making lower highs for days. As long as we are in the channel and having lower lows for me that is a bearish sentiment.
Logically speaking, the price will aim to touch the lower channel for the third time, where is a big point of control sitting with big volume on that level which is 25k.

Now that wont happen, until price closes below middle level in the channel, suggesting the bearish sentiment. Now this level is a dangerous because this level is with low volume, and very close to that breaking point on yellow pocket with basicaly no volume at all.

This is a psychological level, where bulls are aware that if they lose that level the price will tank down, thats why we have those two big wicks on that level.
Now if the price happen to close bellow the middle fib channel, and start to consolidate a little, gathering strenght for some continuation pattern, we will see the big move on 25k.

25k is the very strong buy zone, even if it breaks down a little, everyone will be jumping in, to buy for even lower price, where we could see a potential reversal for maybe a little longer uptrend, but even then we are far away from the bullrun.