Bitcoin (BTC) Technical & Fundamental Analysis

2023年12月4日

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The price of Bitcoin has broken the upper boundary of the parallel price channel it has been in for over a month with an impulsive movement. Currently, we are witnessing a test of the resistance level at 42,000, upon which the further direction of the price movement depends. If BTC consolidates above it, we expect the formation of a new price range of 42,000 - 44,000. From there, new impulsive price movements towards the next target of a significant resistance block at 48,000 are possible, which could serve as a trend reversal level. In this zone, we will be looking for reversal patterns to initiate short positions.

However, it's worth noting that nearly two months of upward movement have occurred with minimal retracement. RSI indicators are in the overbought zone, increasing the likelihood of a local correction before the continuation of the uptrend. If, under selling pressure, the price consolidates below the level of 38,500, we would expect a correction in the range of 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels. A retest of the global ascending trendline may occur in this range. Additionally, this area includes the 1W Imbalance zone, where it's necessary to close gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

The price of Bitcoin has precisely reached the 0.5 Fibonacci correction level from the entire decline since reaching its all-time high (ATH) in 2021. The next growth target is the 0.61 Fibonacci level, where a strong resistance level is also located.

On the daily logarithmic chart, momentum indicator readings suggest that Bitcoin is already in the overbought zone, and 42,000, 45,000, 48,000 levels may pose strong resistance. The RSI indicator has formed a bearish divergence, indicating the need for a local corrective movement. The acceleration of the latest upward impulse, like the previous ones, occurred during short sellers' position liquidations. However, this is the smallest of the liquidations since BTC broke above 30,000. Thus, the impact of this growth factor is also weakening.

If sellers push below the support level of 38,500, we would expect a correction of the entire uptrend since the beginning of this year to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and a retest of the 200-week moving average. In the same area, the weekly Imbalance zone is located at 34,000-31,000.
However, on a global scale, the BTC price is forming patterns that preceded bull markets in previous cycles.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 74.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,501 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 54.2.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, extreme liquidity is at the level of 38,500, and demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 30,000 - 35,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 41,000 - 48,000

Levels for long positions:
38,500 - significant support block
34,000-35,000 - possible retest zone of the trendline
30,000 - psychological support level
28,000 - retest of the 200-week moving average

Levels for short positions:
45,000 - significant resistance block
48,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci correction level




📊 Fundamental analysis

According to CoinShares, over the past 10 weeks, the inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market has reached $1.7 billion. However, regulatory crackdowns on crypto companies may delay the start of a bull market if investors begin to divest from cryptocurrency assets. In light of negative news, Binance users actively withdrew funds from the platform last week, resulting in a net outflow of $1.2 billion in just 24 hours. However, news of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could provide another powerful growth catalyst.

Over the last six months, Bitcoin (BTC) miner revenues have dropped by more than 30%, with November earnings approximately $270 million less than those in October. The decline is attributed to the volatility of the leading cryptocurrency, intense competition, and rising electricity prices. Considering that Bitcoin's mining reward will halve again after the next halving, it's straightforward to calculate the BTC price required for mining to remain profitable.

The stock market positively responded to Jerome Powell's recent statements. Additionally, the inclusion of Uber in the S&P500 index boosted investor confidence, contributing to further S&P500 growth. Currently, it is undergoing a retest of the 4600 level.


🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ December 13, 2023, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.

➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.




📈 Is it possible to predict sudden Bitcoin (BTC) price action?

When the market is strongly influenced by news, we prefer to rely on signals from our trading indicator. Our trading indicator, as always timely, signaled the current upward market impulse and provided the most advantageous entry points for long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take-profit levels were reached for all signals, and the price movement has been:
BTC +10.24%
ETH +10.46%
NMT +13.41%



In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin rise by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:

2023年12月14日

註釋

The price of Bitcoin continues to follow the scenario outlined in our review: after breaking upwards from the parallel price channel, it performed a retest of its upper boundary and is consolidating within a new price range.

As anticipated, inflation in the U.S. reached 3.1%. The interest rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) remained unchanged at 5.5%. The relevance of raising the rate is diminishing, and a decrease may begin without waiting for inflation to reach the target level. This is a positive signal for the growth of global financial markets and the cryptocurrency market. However, it is important to understand that the target for inflation reduction is still 2%.

Thus, there are three crucial triggers for the cryptocurrency market's growth in 2024: the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, the halving, and the initiation of the Fed's interest rate reduction.

However, according to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in order books, we observe an extreme accumulation of sell orders in the range of 44,500 to 50,000. A similar dense wall of orders (but for buying) was observed before the last upward impulse. It seems that significant players are currently not interested in pushing the Bitcoin price above 50,000. As long as this wall remains in place, another local correction is probable before the resumption of the upward movement.