One Lone Bull Amongst Millions of Bears

2019年9月28日

We have Broken and Closed below the 200 DMA.
We had a confirmation Daily Candle close of indecision that failed to even reach the 200 DMA for a retest.
Dominance is on it's way down after finding rejection at the bottom of a channel it rode for quite some time.
The Weekly has only just tapped the 100 WMA but has long lost its 20 WMA and 21 WEMA.
Bakkt has came in to smash the price down for better entries just like the CMEs.

I know, I know... There is Every Reason In The World to be Bearish.

BUT...

I really like Harmonics. (Insert the cookie monster "I don't Know" meme)




Sometimes with TA I feel like an old reporter, before all the major networks were biased and journalism become just a laughable taking point amongst our future selves.

I report what I see. Does this make me a Bull? Does this make me a Bear? Does it mean I must be right? Does it mean I must be wrong?

Honestly, does any of that really matter? Price will do whatever price will do and we will be there every step of the way, watching and learning and trying to build a future.

Enough with the absolute nothingness and lets gets started, shall we?



First, The Bullish Gartley -

The Bullish Gartley is an advanced ABCD Pattern in the Harmonics Family. This is a 5-Point Reversal Pattern.

These patterns are unique in which they carry with them some specific rules in which reversals or pivots can take place.

The XA of a Gartley should be an impulse leg. A fairly straight forward move in price to either the upside or downside.

The B point needs to reach at least a 618 of XA but cannot touch the 786

The C needs to be at least a 618 but must close below a 786 of AB

Finally the D should be a 127 X of AB and as an added bonus, a 786 confluence of XA

Ok, we did not get the confluence of XA



Now the Targets for a Bullish Gartley are the 382 and the 618 of AD



TP1, depending on timing could have confluence with an AC non-valid trend and even more insane would be the intersection from a support wick trend using our B as the anchor 2.

TP2 at the 618 Would be confluence with the ATH-LL 50 Line.

Ok, ok. Now for the Cypher...



Much like the Gartley, the Cypher is a 5-Point Reversal Pattern also an advanced ABCD and in the Harmonics family.

A Cypher differs in a lot of ways, especially the way it's calculated and the fibs that are used to achieve the correct results.

The XA should again be an impulsive move up or down. I admit that this move down is not as sharp and smooth as I would like but I'll deal with the minor retrace.

The B needs to be at least a 382 and must close below the 618 of XA

The C needs to be at least a 127 X of XA but it must close below a 1414 X - I know, this closes at 1417... - While this does diminish some quality to the pattern we do allow for some cushion in both directions.

The D Point should be the 786 of XC



That's weird... The 786 D Point is ALSO the 50 Line from the ATH-LL Fib. hmmm

Targets on the Bearish Cypher should be the 382 and the 618 of CD



See some similarities don't you?

Again, timing would be everything with something like this. The 382 with confluence from that same trend as the Gartley at the 618 with confluence from the ATH-LL 382.

Ok, let's piece it all back together again...





And there you have it...My Friday Night in a nutshell. Yeah, real party animal these days...

So yes, thee is every reason in the world to be bearish but these are also very easy to manage. Entry at the D, SL under X for the Gartley and above X for the Cypher.

Strike rates on these are fantastic so long as they truly are a correct pattern that follow the rules. The closer you follow, the better quality the pattern and the more likely to see TP1 and TP2. These can target all the way up to a 1618 X, which is what the Gartley did that was formed using the 2018 Low...

Anyway, up or down, win or lose, profit or loss, I hope somebody learned something.