Looking on Twitter, YouTube and Reddit, the overall market sentiment is definitely still with 80% of people are saying they are either HODL'ing or buying. However, the majority of people that are selling are probably not shouting about it. Bitcoin has dropped 50% in the past month in the shape of the flag continuation pattern (ignoring the noise). The has generally been decreasing, which is required for the , and we have hit the 0.618 Fib retracement from the recent move. On top of all this, , and all point towards on oversold area. All of these technical indicators favour the bulls!
In a market that has become glamourised by its profit potential, it has become the go-to for everyday people to make some quick money. These are the weakest hands and they are most likely to fold. There has been a lot of talk about regulation by Korea, China, France and now a German Director has called for International cooperation in regulating it. The pressure is heavy and the fact that the price is declining makes it twice as worse. In my eyes, these pieces alone aren't enough to make Bitcoin plummet however we look forward to what news lies ahead.
This bloodbath serves as a reminder that we are in an extremely volatile market and we should always have a plan for every trade we do! This becomes ever more important when we are on a winning streak and we get complacent. In some ways, Crypto is the best market to learn about trading strategy as it is as punishing as it is rewarding.
I am looking for the end of the retracement to be no further than the 0.618 level drawn from Aug 15, around the $8000 mark. I will set my buy orders around this mark and if we do find support here then my first target would be $20k. If it breaks down from here, I think the overall market sentiment will turn and then I will only keep my core holdings. I think there will be many news outlets claiming this bubble has burst but I would advise everyone to look for the next buying opportunities! Out of all the bubbles in the past, I think this is most comparable to the Dot-Com bubble as these technologies have an application to the world that is open for anyone to build upon. I believe in any event, the blockchain technology will prevail.
The Dot-Com-Bubble you can not compare. There were invested money in really big nothing. But behind BTC is an idea. This idea gives value to it (no more from governments manipulated fiat currencies).
Sorry, I should've been clearer on my time frame. We are in a short-term bear market. Long-term we are definitely still bullish but the purpose of this idea was to show where I think we would turn to mid/long-term bear market. Is the 7k fib level drawn from Aug '15 too?
When people were investing in the internet they were investing in the prospect of the New Economy, just like Bitcoin. It was also an open platform for companies to build on top of, like blockchain, and eventually any company built on the internet received millions of dollars of investments without proven use cases. They were called IPO's but now they are called ICO's! The good thing to remember is this - look at where the internet is now.