Bitcoin (BTC) - August 6

2022年8月5日

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(BTCUSDT 1D Chart)
If the price holds above 22753.10, it is expected to maintain an uptrend.

Primary resistance: around 25K
Secondary resistance: 27K-29K

The key is whether it can rise above 23266.90, the point of the published MACD-P indicator, to receive support.

(Among the published indicators, the MACD-P indicator and the MS-Signal indicator combined are the MACD-T indicators.)



(1h chart)

** On the 1h chart, a sharp move is likely to occur, so a short-term response is recommended.

You need to check if you can climb more than the 23175.25-23414.04 section.

If not, you should check to see if it is supported on the 22579.68-22753.10 section.


- In the CCI-C indicator, the CCI line is moving upwards above the EMA line.

Therefore, if the CCI line remains above the EMA line, it is expected to rise.


- However, if the price does not rise above 23414.04 and the Stoch RSI or RSI enters the overbought zone, the uptrend may be broken, so we need to keep an eye on the situation.

So, when you break out of the oversold zone, you should check to see if there is support near the 23175.25-23414.04 zone.

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** This is part of yesterday's update to the BTCUSDTPERP chart. **


When the Nasdaq Index decouples BTC and causes the Nasdaq Index to decline, it does not mean that the BTC price will continue to rise indefinitely.

The maximum climb is expected to be the 27K-29K section.

The reason is that the flow of funds between USDT and USDC shows a decline in the gap.

Therefore, it should be considered that BTC price is in the rebound section of the downtrend until it is supported by rising above 29K, i.e. 29840.6.

Therefore, I think it is necessary to increase the number of coins (tokens) held for short-term trading until it rises above 29840.6.


If it rises near the 27054.1-29840.6 zone or falls unsupported in that zone, the downtrend is likely to accelerate.

Therefore, if it is resisted and falls near 26574.53, Stop Loss is required to preserve profit and loss.

Stop Loss to preserve this profit and loss should proceed by securing cash that can be purchased additionally when the price falls.

Therefore, if you sell 100%, you may not be able to make a proper judgment due to psychological anxiety depending on the price volatility, so you should think about alternatives in advance.


If the downtrend accelerates, I expect to touch the 13137.51-15916.68 zone.


From a mid- to long-term perspective, it is recommended to increase the number of coins (tokens) you have.

Therefore, the above discussion is based on this point of view.

If you increase the number of coins (tokens) instead of cash income, the purchase price becomes 0 for this number of coins (tokens), so when you start buying later, you will be able to reduce the psychological burden of buying.

For this reason, I said that it is better to increase the number of coins (tokens) rather than cash income.


In order for a full-fledged uptrend to come out, I think it will be possible by maintaining the price above 29812.52 or by falling to the 13137.51-15916.68 section and moving sideways.

In any way, from a mid- to long-term point of view, a trading method that maximizes the number of coins (tokens) you have is absolutely necessary until a full-fledged uptrend occurs.


I wrote this in the hope that the above information will be helpful according to your trading strategy and trading style.

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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment.

** The MRHAB-T indicator, which is inactive on the chart, contains indicators that indicate support and resistance points.

** Background color of Long/Short-S indicator: RSI oversold and overbought sections
** Background color of CCI-C indicator: When the short-term CCI line is below -100 and above +100, oversold and overbought sections are displayed.

** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.)

(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.)

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2022年8月5日

註釋

(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)

section that determines the trend
- 924.52-1196.81
- 2285.94-2558.23


The 1741.38 point is the consolidation interval between the trend-determining intervals.

Therefore, if the price is maintained above 1741.38, we expect it to move upward to the 2285.94-2558.23 section.

Therefore, it is important to be able to rise above the 1741.38-1879.61 section.


If it fails to rise above 1741.38, it is expected to consolidate on the 1194.81-1741.38 section.

2022年8月5日

註釋

If you can set a countermeasure against the decline at the buying point, that is, the average buying unit price, your trading strategy is more than 80% created.

The average purchase price or point where it is difficult to make a countermeasure against the decline is the wrong purchase itself.

Twenty percent of trading strategies are countermeasures when bullish.

If the reason for the analysis is to respond to an uptrend, I think that the probability of failure in trading increases.

2022年8月5日

註釋

When you are new to the investment market, ie the coin market or stock market, or are unfamiliar with trading, it can be difficult to choose a buying point.

So, I try to find a buying point while reading various analysis articles and studying charts.

When you can select a buying point to some extent through these efforts, you start to think that it is difficult to find a selling point.


If you find it difficult to find a selling point, most likely it's because you can't sell near the high.

However, if you look at the trading section as a whole, it is likely that the original purchase average unit price is set higher than other transactions for transactions that are difficult to find a selling point.


In order to solve these problems, it is necessary to practice lowering the average unit price of purchases.

Also, this exercise depends on how you increase the number of coins (tokens).


How to increase the number of coins (tokens) has been written on several charts for a long time.

2022年8月6日

註釋

(NEOUSDT 1D Chart)

The key is whether you can support and move up in the 10.99-11.63 zone.

As the RSI indicator is entering an overbought zone, it is important to check where support and resistance are found when exiting the overbought zone.

If that support and resistance point is in the 10.99-11.63 range, it's good, if not, it could move towards the 9.54 area.


From a mid- to long-term perspective, if it rises above 14.0, it is expected to break out of the trough.

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To reiterate the above explanation from a trading point of view, if you see support in the 10.99-11.63 section, which I mentioned above, which is an important key, it is possible to buy in installments.

The possibility of a split buy means that there is a high probability of an uptrend, so it is an explanation that there is a possibility that resistance near 14.0 will be found during an uptrend.


However, while talking about the RSI indicator, you said that there is a possibility that it will fall to around 9.54, so it means that you have to choose whether to stop loss or buy additional when it falls below 9.54.


If you write an analysis that says it will rise to the 14.0 point, people unfamiliar with trading will buy without any countermeasures and will not react when the price drops, increasing the possibility of incurring a big loss.

Therefore, I think it is better for direct trading to explain at what point and in which section to respond when a decline occurs rather than talking about an uptrend.


There is no real meaning to how far it will rise.

As an individual investor, selling near the peak is close to luck.

I don't think it will benefit your trading strategy to sell at the point others have said to get this luck.


The resistance point and target point mentioned in the analysis article are meaningless because they differ depending on what kind of investment point of view the analyst writes.

Whether the price can withstand the volatility up to that point of resistance or target is up to the party who made the trade.


Unpacking the description can be a hindrance to creating your own trading strategy, so I'm explaining it based on support and resistance points.

No matter where you buy, if you have a trading strategy that you set, you will have a higher chance of completing the trade successfully.

2022年8月6日

註釋

(BTC.D 1W Chart)

A decline to the 39.56-40.44 range is expected to result in volatility.

The key is whether this volatility will renew an all-time low or move up to the 43.40-45.68 range.


(USDT + USDC 1W chart)

It can be seen that a huge amount of money has flowed into the coin market now than in 2018.

Therefore, predicting the flow of money has not been easy.

Therefore, I think the movement of BTC dominance is also virtually unpredictable.

However, in May 2021, it touched the 39.56-40.44 section and has been showing a sideways trend so far, so it is only expected to touch the 39.56-40.44 section this time and rise.


A decline in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated towards altcoins.

Therefore, it is expected that the asking price of BTC will become thinner, which will increase the likelihood of large volatility.


Recently, we can see that funds are flowing out through USDT and USDC.

The outflow of funds will reduce the transaction of coins (tokens), thereby reducing liquidity.

A decrease in liquidity is likely to result in a natural downtrend.

I think this is caused by a decrease in the trading of investors who operate huge funds.

In addition to this decrease in liquidity, the deposit service in the coin market has grown, accelerating the decrease in liquidity.


BTC is inevitably affected by the BTC price because there is a BTC market for trading altcoins.

It remains to be seen whether the volatility that occurs when BTC dominance touches or falls between 39.56-40.44 this time will lead to a big rise in BTC price.

This big rise is most likely a harbinger of a downtrend, so trade cautiously.


If so, the question arises when will the bull market start?

In order for the coin market to start a bull market, USDT and USDC need to rise first.

USDT should remain above 68.468B and USDC above 52.246B.

In this case, it is believed that prediction is possible only by checking the position of BTC dominance and the position of BTC price.

2022年8月6日

註釋

(FORTHUSDT 1W Chart)

Resistance: 7.07-8.67
Support: 2.73-3.62
Whether or not it can move higher than 12.50 and continue its full-fledged uptrend is the key key.

To do this, you need to check if it can be supported by rising above the 7.07-8.67 section.


(1D chart)

Primary resistance: 7.07-7.75
Secondary resistance: 8.67-9.34

1st support: 5.31
Second support: 2.73-3.62

The key is whether the price can hold above 5.31 to cross the 1st and 2nd resistance zones.


Therefore, after confirming the support near 5.31, it is possible to buy in installments.

However, when it falls below 5.31, it may drop to around 3.62, so there must be a countermeasure for this.


It touched the 12.50 point and moved lower, so if it finds support near 5.31, I would expect an attempt to break through the resistance zone upwards.

2022年8月6日

註釋

** It is recommended to use indicators to ensure that subjective thoughts caused by price volatility do not affect trading. **

(SXPKRW 1W chart)

The Heikin Ashi candle and the MS-Signal indicator are indicators of trends.

In order to trade using the Heikin Ashi candle, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators were created to indicate support and resistance points.

In addition, we created the MACD-P indicator to trade using the MS-Signal indicator.


HA-Low, HA-High, and MACD-T (MACD-P + MS-Signal) indicators were released.


The HA-Low indicator has fallen and is showing support.

Therefore, it can be said that the possibility of price increase has increased.

However, since the MS-Signal indicator is showing a downtrend and is located below the MS-Signal indicator, it cannot be said that there is an upward trend.


Since the color of the MACD-P indicator is purple, it means that the histogram of the MACD indicator has risen more than 0 points.

So, you can see that the price is more likely to go up.


The 990 point is the point where the HA-Low indicator forms a long horizontal line and serves as support and resistance.

(The longer the horizon, the stronger the support and resistance role.)


In order to show a full-fledged upward trend, the MS-Signal indicator should rise above the MS-Signal indicator to maintain the price, and the MS-Signal indicator should turn into an upward indicator.

Also, it can be interpreted that the possibility of a true uptrend is very high only when the HA-High indicator is supported by a decline.


For the HA-High indicator to decline, it needs to be rocked up and down.
Therefore, the HA-High indicator will decline only when large volatility occurs.


Regardless of which indicator is used, it is important to interpret and utilize the key part of that indicator.

By using these indicators, you can get away from subjective thoughts about price volatility to a small extent.

When subjective thoughts begin to intervene in a transaction due to the fluctuation of the psychological state due to price volatility, the probability of failure of the transaction increases.

Therefore, it is important to ensure that no subjective thoughts are involved in the transaction.