BTCUSD: Buy the dip opportunity to rejoin the long term trend

2021年4月26日

I think this is a prime buying opportunity in the long term in #Bitcoin here, in case you were in cash here, or hedged. I am long already, after hedging part of the last decline as per my previous publication. See the Dominance chart in related ideas for more thoughts regarding altcoins here. I think a combination of institutional buying and rotation from altcoins into Bitcoins by OG traders and miners is likely next, and that we are seeing a very oversold dip similar to the one we saw back in September 2020.

I have added a couple fundamental key levels to the chart as reference, in this case levels associated to potential OTC buyers activity (Coinbase Bitcoin outflows, probably going into custody wallets after OTC trades).
We also had huge USDT inflows into exchanges recently, which aligns with my train of thought, and miners have been net buyers of Bitcoin lately, rather than sellers.

We had some massive margin liquidations and now an increase in shorts at the bottom, which suggests we both got rid of leveraged longs after funding reset back to negative and open interest dropped big time, and we also managed to trap sellers who both sold their precious Bitcoin at the bottom and sold short to make things worse, potentially.
Best of luck, hopefully I'm correct in my analysis here.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

2021年4月27日

註釋

2021年5月6日

手動結束交易

I sold @ 57k ish

2021年5月7日

交易進行

I covered my hedge yesterday. Forgot to update here. Monitoring event risk from SNL tomorrow, could be alt season top, or could bring some problems with the SEC.

2021年5月10日

手動結束交易

Event risk confirmed...I shorted DOGE before SNL, and shorted some ETC before today's drop. Hedged BTC spot a bit higher than 55k, was fast and hard to react on time, market seems to have topped potentially, aligned with SPX.

2021年5月11日

交易進行

I'm back in the long trade since this morning, when stocks bottomed.

2021年9月25日

註釋

This trade was good, from 50 to 55k.