CoinMarketCap chart and correlation with BTC

5 天前

Hello, traders.

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Have a nice day today.

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(USDT.D 1D chart)

USDT dominance is showing a downward trend along the medium- to long-term downtrend line.

The decline in USDT dominance can be interpreted as an upward trend in the coin market.

Therefore, if it remains below 4.91 or continues to decline, the coin market is likely to enter a bull market.

The coin market is expected to show a major bull market until 2025.

At this time, the USDT dominance is expected to fall to around 3.42 and then rise, causing the coin market to enter a bear market.

Therefore, a major bear market is expected in 2026.

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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)

You might think that it would be good if it continued to rise in a bull market, but in reality, that is not the case.

The reason is that if the price continues to rise, you have to buy more money.

Therefore, it will show a pattern of falling when appropriate and rising again when appropriate.

As I mentioned earlier, 2025 is a major bull market, so it will eventually show a rising pattern.

So, when should we buy and when should we sell?

It would be nice if we could know this a little bit faster, but we can never know.

Currently, BTC is renewing its ATH, so it is even more difficult to predict the movement.

Therefore, we can only predict it through predictable chart analysis techniques.

Among them, the method I use is to predict and respond to the high point using the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and the DOM (DMI + OBV + MOMENTUM) indicator using the Heikin-Ashi chart.

The DOM indicator indicates the end of the high and low points, and the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are used to establish a basic trading strategy.


The sky blue (#00bcd4) arrow is generated, indicating that the DOM (60) indicator is likely to be generated soon.

In other words, it means that the end of the high point is becoming more likely.

When the DOM(60) indicator is created, there is a high possibility of resistance, so the price is likely to fall.

Therefore, you should think about a countermeasure for the decline.

However, as I mentioned earlier, since 2025 is expected to show a major uptrend, it is recommended to sell in installments at an appropriate level to preserve profits.

The reason is that we cannot know how far it will fall.

The start of a full-scale decline is likely to begin when it falls below the HA-High indicator.

Therefore, if it falls after the DOM(60) indicator is created, we should observe whether a new HA-High indicator is created.

If a new HA-High indicator is created, the key point is whether there is support in the vicinity.

If a new HA-High indicator is not created, it is likely to fall to the current HA-High indicator location of 73499.86.

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A trend line has been formed between highs, but a trend line between lows has not yet been formed.

Therefore, it is difficult to predict how far it will fall once the decline begins.

In the 2025 bull market, BTC is expected to rise to around the Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 (133889.92).

Therefore, we should also consider countermeasures for this.

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(BTC.D 1M chart)

When will the altcoin bull market start?

I think the timing is when BTC dominance falls below 55.01 and is maintained or continues to decline.

I think the rising BTC dominance means that the funds flowing into the coin market are concentrated toward BTC.

Therefore, we should consider that a market for trading BTC has been formed.

If BTC dominance fails to fall below the 55.01-62.47 range, BTC dominance is expected to rise to around 73.63-77.07.

At this time, it is highly likely that it will encounter strong resistance and begin to decline.


Since it has not fallen below the mid- to long-term trend line, it seems likely that it will continue to rise.

In order to eventually turn into a downtrend, BTC dominance must fall below 60.

If not, I think it will be difficult to expect an uptrend in altcoins.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

This period of volatility is expected to continue until July 11.

Therefore, the key issue is whether there is support near 111696.21.

If there is support at the 111696.21 point, it is expected to rise to the right Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (116940.43).

If not, we need to check whether there is support near 108316.90.

As I mentioned in the previous idea, three conditions must be met to break through the 111696.21 point upward.

- The StochRSI indicator is showing an upward trend with K>D,
- The PVT-MACD oscillator is showing an upward trend (if possible, above the 0 point),
- The OBV indicator of the Low Line ~ High Line channel is maintained above the High Line,
If the above conditions are met, I said that there is a high possibility of a stepwise upward trend from the 111696.21 point.

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The next volatility period is expected to occur around July 18 (July 17-19).

Therefore, we need to see if it can be maintained above 111696.21 until the next volatility period.

If it fails, we need to check if it is supported above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, near 108316.90.

If not, it is likely to fall to the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart or near 99705.62.

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The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.

However, if the HA-High indicator rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, and if the HA-Low indicator falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend.

The end of the stepwise uptrend is a downtrend, and the end of the stepwise downtrend is an uptrend.

That is, we can see that the support around the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section and the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section will be important turning points for the future trend.

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On the USDT dominance chart, it seems likely that August 3rd will be the volatility period.

Looking at the BTC chart, it seems likely that August 2nd to 5th (August 1st to 6th) will be the pre-movement for the volatility period of August 1st to 6th.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.

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- ​​This is an explanation of the big picture.

(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)

I will explain more details when the bear market starts.

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4 天前

交易進行

#BTCUSDT

The important volatility period is expected to be around August 2nd - 5th (maximum August 1st - 6th).

Therefore, the important key is whether it is rising or falling based on the 108316.90-111696.21 range after the previous volatility period.


When the price of BTC starts to move sideways, the BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to fall in order for the altcoin bull market to begin.

If not, it is expected that the price of altcoins will only pretend to rise and then return to the same level.

If BTC dominance rises, I think the price of altcoins will gradually move sideways or show a downward trend.

Therefore, we need to see if BTC dominance falls to the 55.01-62.47 area and shows resistance.

3 天前

註釋

The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.

However, if it rises from HA-High to DOM(60), it is likely to show a stepwise upward trend, and if it falls from DOM(-60) to HA-Low, it is likely to show a stepwise downward trend.

Therefore, the trading method should be a split trading method.

The DOM(-60) to HA-Low section and the HA-High to DOM(60) section are important support and resistance sections that determine the trend.

前天

註釋

#BTCUSDT

As BTC broke above the 111696.21 point, it showed an upward trend towards the right Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (116940.43).

Again, we must remember that Fibonacci ratios are tools for analyzing charts, not for indicating support and resistance points.

The most significant volatility period is expected to be around August 2-5 (maximum August 1-6).

However, there are volatility periods before that around July 18 and July 25.

Therefore, we need to see if the price maintains above 111696.21 after August 2-5 (maximum August 1-6).

If not, and it falls below the 108316.90-111696.21 range, it is likely to fall until it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.






The basic trading strategy works no matter which time frame chart you look at.

The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.

However, if it rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, it is likely to show a stepwise upward trend, and if it falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, it is likely to show a stepwise downward trend.

Therefore, the basic trading method should be a split trading method.

You can see that the support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section and the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section is an important section that determines the trend.

You should think about what criteria make you start trading, and if it meets those criteria, you should be able to boldly start trading even if you suffer a loss.

前天

註釋

#BTCUSDT

Since the K and D of the StochRSI indicator are in the overbought zone, I think there is a high possibility that the rise will be restricted.

Therefore, there is a high possibility that it will show a sideways or downward trend in the near future.

At this time, you should check whether there is support near 116868.0, which is the StochRSI 80 indicator point.

It is practically difficult to predict the movement because the ATH is being updated.


Therefore, you should check the overall trend on the 1D chart to determine the main position, and then proceed with the transaction while checking whether there is support at the support and resistance points on the time frame chart you are trading.

The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.

In order to do so, you need to check whether there is support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section or the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section and trade accordingly.

If it rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section, it is likely to show a stepwise upward trend, and if it falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section, it is likely to show a stepwise downward trend.

The basic trading strategy is always the same regardless of the time frame chart you trade on.

昨天

註釋

The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.

That is, buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section.

You can see that the HA-Low indicator has been newly created as the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section is currently falling.

Since the DOM(-60) indicator is currently formed at the 107538.95 point, if the price falls further, the DOM(-60) indicator is expected to be newly created.

Accordingly, we need to see if it can be supported and rise near the HA-Low indicator.

Conditions for rising:
- The K of the StochRSI indicator must be below the overbought range and show an upward trend with K > D.
- The PVT-MACD oscillator indicator must show an upward trend. (If possible, it is good to show an upward trend above the 0 point.)
- The OBV indicator of the Low Line ~ High Line channel must show an upward trend. (If possible, it is good to show an upward trend above the High Line.)
When the above conditions are met, there is a high possibility that the HA-Low indicator will rise above it and continue the upward trend.

In this way, the reason for starting a trade must be clear so that stable trading can be conducted.

Even if a loss cut occurs, the reason must be clear.

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If you look at the chart, you can see that it showed a stepwise upward trend while rising in the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range.

Therefore, you may think that you can make a profit by buying when it rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section and selling in the next HA-High ~ DOM(60) section.

However, if you look at the chart in more detail, you can see that the uptrend started when it rose in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section.

Therefore, it is recommended to trade by following the basic trading strategy as faithfully as possible.

In other words, buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section.

For this, the basic trading method should be a split trading method.

15 小時前

註釋

#BTCUSDT

HA-High indicator is showing signs of forming at 115854.56.

Accordingly, if HA-High indicator is formed at 115854.56, the key issue is whether there is support near that point.

Since DOM(60) indicator is not showing signs of forming at the moment, it seems likely to find support near 115854.56 and rise.

Since the DOM(60) indicator is an indicator that indicates the end of the high point, most of the time, the DOM(60) indicator is created and then the HA-High indicator is created.

In that sense, it seems that the creation of this HA-High indicator is likely to serve as support for a stepwise upward trend.

Therefore, we need to check whether the DOM(60) indicator is created.

Currently, the DOM(60) indicator is formed at the 111696.21 point.