Calling the Unthinkable: Why a Bitcoin Drop May Be Coming

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Predicting a drop in Bitcoin's price during a strong uptrend is extremely difficult and calling it takes real courage. It puts my credibility at risk, but based on everything I see, I believe BTC has reached dangerously high levels.

From a psychological perspective, investor behavior is sending warning signs. There’s a rush of people buying in out of FOMO, amplified by heavy promotion on social media and mainstream claiming BTC is the safest investment out there. Many who missed earlier buying opportunities now regret betting on altcoins instead, and they see this as a last chance to profit. Even if BTC drops below their entry points, most of these “late buyers” won’t sell. They’ll convince themselves it’s just another minor correction like what happened in the previous 2 years, and that they’re in it for the long term.

From a technical analysis point, the signs are just as concerning. A “shooting star” candle has formed on the weekly chart. This candle is often seen at market tops. The MACD histogram on the same timeframe is showing a potential divergence, suggesting weakening momentum. The Fear and Greed Index is approaching 70, indicating strong market greed. On top of that, traders are opening high-leverage long positions in anticipation of another big bullish candle.

These technical and psychological signals combined paint a risky picture. If this kind of setup is confirmed , it will lead to sharp corrections.