$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?

The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis:

- **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump.
- **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while.
- **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom.

Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.**
- We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable.
- **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater.

To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over.
- The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure.
- Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD.

If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve.

Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀

交易進行

Well that was fast. FOMC was an excuse to Wall Street to dump the SNP500 on us, and since now the same who are manipulating WS are also in charge of BTC we will probably get a -10%-20% BTC dump.
This might be not the final fight and I think that we have 2 months before really be worried.
The bulls will refill their bags and we will have 10 weeks of bullish resistance before a complete collapse.

手動結束交易

Update on this idea:
I was right. The signs of the end of this bull market are becoming increasingly clear, and many people are now starting to notice.

However, I don’t believe we’re heading straight into a bear market just yet.
The Weekly timeframe is on the verge of crossing bearish, which is the smoking gun. But the Daily timeframe is at its bottom and turning bullish.

This suggests we still have at least 1–2 months of bullish momentum, possibly reaching a new all-time high before the eventual collapse.
Altcoins, in particular, are completing their December mini altseason correction and are poised for a 1D push to the upside.

Here’s my outlook:

BTC and altcoins will likely pump for the next two months.
After that, we could see an 8-month correction lasting until October 2025.
I no longer believe in the traditional 4-year cycle; I think the market will follow the Weekly timeframe instead. I’ll elaborate on this idea in another post on Trading View.

In the meantime, set your stop losses at -12% to -20% in case the big whales decide to dump early and take profits ahead of the cycle’s end. Be strict with your stop-loss strategies, as we’re entering a red zone where unexpected events can occur. I’ll personally set my stop losses and monitor the market closely.

🔗 Updated chart: