BTC/USDT: Between 94K and 100K, the Market Must Decide
Technical Context and Multi-Timeframe Trends
• Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Divergence
Several indicators (MA, Ichimoku, RSI, etc.) highlight a divergence between short-term timeframes (1H to 4H, which are mostly “Down”) and longer-term timeframes (12H, 1D, and even Weekly, which are in an “Up” trend). The market is currently in a state of hesitation; shorter timeframes show exhaustion, while the broader trend remains bullish.
• Key Support Zone: 94–95K USDT
On intraday charts (2H–4H), this level emerges as a critical support, confirmed by AVWAP (loVWAP) and liquidation clusters. This is the key pivot zone for any short-term buying strategy. A confirmed breakdown (especially on 4H/1D close) could open the door to 92K or even 90K USDT.
• Major Resistance: 98–100K USDT
Several technical elements make this area difficult to break:
• Daily moving averages (e.g., MA 50, Ichimoku Kijun).
• Recent highs tested without a clear breakout.
• New selling blocks identified (indicating resistance from short sellers).
• Longer-Term Perspective
If BTC climbs above 98–99K and confirms on a daily close, the probability of an extended move toward 105–110K increases, given the identified liquidation clusters and open interest positioned higher. On the other hand, a rejection below 98K would prolong the consolidation, increasing the risk of a deeper retracement below 94K.
Key Indicators Analysis
1. MTFTI (Multi-Timeframe Trend Indicator)
• Short-term (1H, 2H, 4H): “Down” or “Neutral.”
• Medium and long-term (12H, 1D, 1W): “Up.”
• Overall average (AVG): “Neutral” (reflecting an undecided market).
2. ISPD Div Pro
• In 2H/4H, Investor Satisfaction (white line) is near 0.15–0.16, indicating a potential rebound zone.
• In daily charts, the value rises to ~0.60, signaling a more neutral-to-bearish stance.
• Interpretation: Buyers may attempt an entry on lower timeframes if support holds, but higher timeframes do not yet confirm an extreme oversold condition.
3. HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• On 4H, the index is at 89, approaching a potential local overbought level.
• On 1D, it drops to around 30–35, closer to an oversold zone.
• This contradiction suggests that short-term markets may pull back, while the daily timeframe could still support a later bullish move.
4. Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• Asymmetrical readings across timeframes.
• On 4H, the “Azul” zone dominates (often linked to institutional buying).
• On 1D, “Verde” (red) is stronger, indicating profit-taking.
• The lack of agreement between timeframes reflects the current “all-or-nothing” sentiment in the market.
5. Mason’s Line Indicator
• 2H/4H: Green Satisfaction > Blue SMA → potential bullish signal.
• 8H/1D: Green line below its moving average → suggests a slowdown or consolidation.
Trading Scenario & Risk Management
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound):
• If the price holds above 94–95K, a rally toward 98–100K remains possible.
• A confirmed daily close above 98–99K would reinforce the case for an upward move toward 105–109K.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
• A 4H/1D close below 94K signals caution.
• A potential wick to 92K or even 90K is possible due to the liquidation clusters.
• Below 89–90K, a deeper correction could unfold.
3. Trade Management:
• Aggressive traders may look for bounce signals at 94–95K (RSI divergences, ISPD at 0.15, etc.).
• Conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 98–99K for a safer momentum-driven entry.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT market is in a high-risk zone, with major support at 94–95K USDT and strong resistance at 98–100K USDT. Technical indicators vary across timeframes, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but without strong confirmation on daily timeframes. If support breaks, a drop to 92K–90K could materialize. Conversely, if 98–99K is reclaimed, BTC could extend gains toward 105–110K.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
• Immediate Support: 94–95K
• Lower Support: 92K (potentially 90K)
• Resistances: 98–100K, then 105K+
Given the current market uncertainty, a clear signal on the 4H/Daily timeframe will be the key trigger for any decisive trading action.
• Short-Term vs. Mid-Term Divergence
Several indicators (MA, Ichimoku, RSI, etc.) highlight a divergence between short-term timeframes (1H to 4H, which are mostly “Down”) and longer-term timeframes (12H, 1D, and even Weekly, which are in an “Up” trend). The market is currently in a state of hesitation; shorter timeframes show exhaustion, while the broader trend remains bullish.
• Key Support Zone: 94–95K USDT
On intraday charts (2H–4H), this level emerges as a critical support, confirmed by AVWAP (loVWAP) and liquidation clusters. This is the key pivot zone for any short-term buying strategy. A confirmed breakdown (especially on 4H/1D close) could open the door to 92K or even 90K USDT.
• Major Resistance: 98–100K USDT
Several technical elements make this area difficult to break:
• Daily moving averages (e.g., MA 50, Ichimoku Kijun).
• Recent highs tested without a clear breakout.
• New selling blocks identified (indicating resistance from short sellers).
• Longer-Term Perspective
If BTC climbs above 98–99K and confirms on a daily close, the probability of an extended move toward 105–110K increases, given the identified liquidation clusters and open interest positioned higher. On the other hand, a rejection below 98K would prolong the consolidation, increasing the risk of a deeper retracement below 94K.
Key Indicators Analysis
1. MTFTI (Multi-Timeframe Trend Indicator)
• Short-term (1H, 2H, 4H): “Down” or “Neutral.”
• Medium and long-term (12H, 1D, 1W): “Up.”
• Overall average (AVG): “Neutral” (reflecting an undecided market).
2. ISPD Div Pro
• In 2H/4H, Investor Satisfaction (white line) is near 0.15–0.16, indicating a potential rebound zone.
• In daily charts, the value rises to ~0.60, signaling a more neutral-to-bearish stance.
• Interpretation: Buyers may attempt an entry on lower timeframes if support holds, but higher timeframes do not yet confirm an extreme oversold condition.
3. HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• On 4H, the index is at 89, approaching a potential local overbought level.
• On 1D, it drops to around 30–35, closer to an oversold zone.
• This contradiction suggests that short-term markets may pull back, while the daily timeframe could still support a later bullish move.
4. Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• Asymmetrical readings across timeframes.
• On 4H, the “Azul” zone dominates (often linked to institutional buying).
• On 1D, “Verde” (red) is stronger, indicating profit-taking.
• The lack of agreement between timeframes reflects the current “all-or-nothing” sentiment in the market.
5. Mason’s Line Indicator
• 2H/4H: Green Satisfaction > Blue SMA → potential bullish signal.
• 8H/1D: Green line below its moving average → suggests a slowdown or consolidation.
Trading Scenario & Risk Management
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound):
• If the price holds above 94–95K, a rally toward 98–100K remains possible.
• A confirmed daily close above 98–99K would reinforce the case for an upward move toward 105–109K.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
• A 4H/1D close below 94K signals caution.
• A potential wick to 92K or even 90K is possible due to the liquidation clusters.
• Below 89–90K, a deeper correction could unfold.
3. Trade Management:
• Aggressive traders may look for bounce signals at 94–95K (RSI divergences, ISPD at 0.15, etc.).
• Conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 98–99K for a safer momentum-driven entry.
Conclusion
The BTC/USDT market is in a high-risk zone, with major support at 94–95K USDT and strong resistance at 98–100K USDT. Technical indicators vary across timeframes, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but without strong confirmation on daily timeframes. If support breaks, a drop to 92K–90K could materialize. Conversely, if 98–99K is reclaimed, BTC could extend gains toward 105–110K.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
• Immediate Support: 94–95K
• Lower Support: 92K (potentially 90K)
• Resistances: 98–100K, then 105K+
Given the current market uncertainty, a clear signal on the 4H/Daily timeframe will be the key trigger for any decisive trading action.
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。