BTC/USDT Analysis – Feb 7, 2024: 4H Consolidation & Key Zone
Most Relevant Timeframe and Key Levels
1. Relevant Timeframe for Action
• Based on the indicators Mason’s Satisfaction (0.1792), ISPD Div Pro (Investor Satisfaction ~0.19), and Koncorde (Azul > 100 while Verde is negative) on the 4H timeframe, there is a clearer “pessimism” / “oversold” context visible on this timeframe.
• The 4H chart appears to be a good compromise for identifying an entry point, provided that one is willing to accept intraday volatility.
• Smaller timeframes (15m–1H) are tradable for scalping, but this approach requires constant monitoring and can be invalidated if the 95k level breaks decisively.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
• Major short/mid-term supports:
• 4H LoAVWAP: ~95,860–96,000 USDT
• Psychological zone: ~94,000–95,000 USDT
• Lower support if broken: ~89,000–90,000 USDT (a break of this zone would have stronger bearish implications).
• Resistance levels:
• MTTFI Short Term MA (4H): ~99,200–99,300 USDT
• HiAVWAP 4H: ~103,000 USDT
• Daily resistance: ~104,700 USDT (AVWAP High), acting as a more distant resistance.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. Overall Market Situation
• The BTC/USDT market is in short-term consolidation/correction (2H–4H trending downward), while the broader trend remains bullish (12H–1D–1W trending upward).
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) on 4H are moving into lower zones, which could indicate a speculative buying opportunity.
• Macroeconomic factors (NFP, US unemployment data) could increase volatility. A worse-than-expected employment report may trigger a faster rebound.
2. Short-Term Strategy (4H)
• Key zone to watch: 95k–96k
• Bullish scenario: If this support holds, a long position around 96k could be considered, with a tight stop-loss below ~94.5–95k. The first technical target would be 99–100k (Short Term MA), with a further target at 103k.
• Bearish scenario: A clear break below 94–95k could lead to a drop towards 90k, potentially 89k. In this case, caution is advised, as the correction could deepen.
3. Long-Term Strategy (Daily, Weekly)
• No major bearish reversal is confirmed as long as 89k holds.
• For patient investors, the current move is still a “breather” within a broader uptrend.
• Those focusing on long-term accumulation could gradually buy on dips, while others might wait for the corrective wave to complete (potential ABC pattern).
4. Key Takeaways from Observations
• Short-term trades should focus on the 94–95k zone holding.
• Altcoins continue a slow correction, while BTC remains stronger; breaking 89k would be a concerning signal.
• US economic data (14:30 UTC) could trigger abrupt market moves (either up or down).
• Political news (Trump, ETFs, BTC reserves) can influence sentiment, but they often have more of a media impact than a fundamental one in the short term.
Summary
• The 4H timeframe is favored for a potential entry point, given the low sentiment and possible rebound signals.
• Critical support zone: ~95k → If it holds, a long trade with targets at 99k–103k could be considered.
• If 89k is not broken, the overall trend remains bullish, and dips may present buying opportunities.
1. Relevant Timeframe for Action
• Based on the indicators Mason’s Satisfaction (0.1792), ISPD Div Pro (Investor Satisfaction ~0.19), and Koncorde (Azul > 100 while Verde is negative) on the 4H timeframe, there is a clearer “pessimism” / “oversold” context visible on this timeframe.
• The 4H chart appears to be a good compromise for identifying an entry point, provided that one is willing to accept intraday volatility.
• Smaller timeframes (15m–1H) are tradable for scalping, but this approach requires constant monitoring and can be invalidated if the 95k level breaks decisively.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
• Major short/mid-term supports:
• 4H LoAVWAP: ~95,860–96,000 USDT
• Psychological zone: ~94,000–95,000 USDT
• Lower support if broken: ~89,000–90,000 USDT (a break of this zone would have stronger bearish implications).
• Resistance levels:
• MTTFI Short Term MA (4H): ~99,200–99,300 USDT
• HiAVWAP 4H: ~103,000 USDT
• Daily resistance: ~104,700 USDT (AVWAP High), acting as a more distant resistance.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. Overall Market Situation
• The BTC/USDT market is in short-term consolidation/correction (2H–4H trending downward), while the broader trend remains bullish (12H–1D–1W trending upward).
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) on 4H are moving into lower zones, which could indicate a speculative buying opportunity.
• Macroeconomic factors (NFP, US unemployment data) could increase volatility. A worse-than-expected employment report may trigger a faster rebound.
2. Short-Term Strategy (4H)
• Key zone to watch: 95k–96k
• Bullish scenario: If this support holds, a long position around 96k could be considered, with a tight stop-loss below ~94.5–95k. The first technical target would be 99–100k (Short Term MA), with a further target at 103k.
• Bearish scenario: A clear break below 94–95k could lead to a drop towards 90k, potentially 89k. In this case, caution is advised, as the correction could deepen.
3. Long-Term Strategy (Daily, Weekly)
• No major bearish reversal is confirmed as long as 89k holds.
• For patient investors, the current move is still a “breather” within a broader uptrend.
• Those focusing on long-term accumulation could gradually buy on dips, while others might wait for the corrective wave to complete (potential ABC pattern).
4. Key Takeaways from Observations
• Short-term trades should focus on the 94–95k zone holding.
• Altcoins continue a slow correction, while BTC remains stronger; breaking 89k would be a concerning signal.
• US economic data (14:30 UTC) could trigger abrupt market moves (either up or down).
• Political news (Trump, ETFs, BTC reserves) can influence sentiment, but they often have more of a media impact than a fundamental one in the short term.
Summary
• The 4H timeframe is favored for a potential entry point, given the low sentiment and possible rebound signals.
• Critical support zone: ~95k → If it holds, a long trade with targets at 99k–103k could be considered.
• If 89k is not broken, the overall trend remains bullish, and dips may present buying opportunities.
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這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。