BTC/USD - LONG SCENARIOS - ANALYSIS - D
已更新
The "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary.
-> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls).
-> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG.
-> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move,
which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 21,013.91 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 21,163.44 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 21,630.75 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 21,798.97 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 22,238.24 USD | Pending processing
-> 1.618 FIB = 25,686.93 USD | Pending processing
> As "dotted" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - Aug/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 22,504.72 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 22,731.45 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 23,439.99 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 23,695.06 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 24,361.08 USD | Pending processing
-> 1.618 FIB = 29,590.06 USD | Pending processing
> As "dashed" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - June/2022 -.
-> 0.328 FIB = 22,468.86 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.618 FIB = 26,754.19 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 27,227.05 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 28,704.75 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 29,326.72 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 30,625.76 USD | Pending processing
> As "solid" lines - drawn in the chart.
4. | DEMAND ZONES
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020.
-> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 29,282.36 – 32,399.00 USD | Pending processing
-> DAYS ZONE | 1 | = 21,538.51 – 22,799.00 USD | Pending processing
-> TAGES ZONE | 2 | = 23,671.22 – 25,211.32 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 3 | = 29,944.10 - 32,399.00USD | Pending processing
-> 4 HOURS ZONE | 1 | = 22,182.93- 22,794.61USD | Pending processing
-> 4 HOURS ZONE | 2 | = 23,111,.04- 23,600.00USD | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
5. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 22,600 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 1 | = 28,000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 30,000 USD | Pending processing
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL |
The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022.
-> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement
SECOND PART
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation.
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (1)
- "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG
- Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it.
All levels plotted on this screenshot:
2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending
- "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools
- Uptrend line serves as resistance
- Test from last market structure break
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above.
All levels drawn in on this screenshot:
CONCLUSION
What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels).
- If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it.
- If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
-> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum.
-> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all.
If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
-> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls).
-> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG.
-> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move,
which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 21,013.91 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 21,163.44 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 21,630.75 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 21,798.97 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 22,238.24 USD | Pending processing
-> 1.618 FIB = 25,686.93 USD | Pending processing
> As "dotted" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - Aug/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -.
-> 0.618 FIB = 22,504.72 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 22,731.45 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 23,439.99 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 23,695.06 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 24,361.08 USD | Pending processing
-> 1.618 FIB = 29,590.06 USD | Pending processing
> As "dashed" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - June/2022 -.
-> 0.328 FIB = 22,468.86 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.618 FIB = 26,754.19 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.65 FIB = 27,227.05 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.75 FIB = 28,704.75 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 29,326.72 USD | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 30,625.76 USD | Pending processing
> As "solid" lines - drawn in the chart.
4. | DEMAND ZONES
The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement,
thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020.
-> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 29,282.36 – 32,399.00 USD | Pending processing
-> DAYS ZONE | 1 | = 21,538.51 – 22,799.00 USD | Pending processing
-> TAGES ZONE | 2 | = 23,671.22 – 25,211.32 USD | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 3 | = 29,944.10 - 32,399.00USD | Pending processing
-> 4 HOURS ZONE | 1 | = 22,182.93- 22,794.61USD | Pending processing
-> 4 HOURS ZONE | 2 | = 23,111,.04- 23,600.00USD | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
5. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 22,600 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 1 | = 28,000 USD | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 30,000 USD | Pending processing
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL |
The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022.
-> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement
SECOND PART
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation.
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (1)
- "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG
- Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it.
All levels plotted on this screenshot:
2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending
- "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools
- Uptrend line serves as resistance
- Test from last market structure break
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500!
= DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above.
All levels drawn in on this screenshot:
CONCLUSION
What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels).
- If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it.
- If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
-> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum.
-> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all.
If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
註釋
POI(1) has been successfully worked through, and we have advanced to the SUPPLY ZONE (2). > Now everything looks like the "short term" rally is over - the DXY is recovering.
> The Fibonacci levels from my SHORT idea have been perfectly worked off (green hooks).
> The retracement levels drawn from the idea are outdated and have been adjusted to the new LOW POINT.
The updated levels are in the following chart:
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