BTC - Closing in on Target! Almost there! Hold it! Hold It!

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Greeting and happy trading day or should I say happy holding day. If you are looking for an entry point, I will point out to you what the Elliot Wave theory is suggesting based on current Price Action. If you are already knee deep and sunk in, "hold on, change is coming, just hold on, everything will be alriiight" lol. All smiles today because we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here is a narrowed in view of BTC on the 4 hour chart.

The chart shows Elliot Waves 1-4 of the most recent trend is complete based on the rules and rations provided below. BTC has now entered into the 5th and final impulse wave. In this case, BTC's Wave 3 failed to reach the length of 1.62x Wave 1. For this reason, we can hypothesis that Wave 5 will be an extended Wave. The theory also tells us that a complete Elliot Impulse Wave (1-5 series) is equal to a Value of 1.0 with the price action length beginning of Wave 1 through the close Wave 4 equaling .382 or .618 which also corresponds with Fibonacci Retracement Values. In BTCs most recent case, this value (Wave 1 start to Wave 4 completion) is approximately $1350. To calculate an extended Wave 5, multiply 1.618x the calculated value which = $2184. Add or subtract this value to the start of Wave 5 in the direction of the Wave to calculate your target. In the case, that target lands around $8.2k.

Add this to the smaller Head and Shoulder ( H&S ) formation that is forming suggest a dip in price action coming combined with the potential similar larger inverse H&S to drive the price action up. From there, the inverse H&S could drive the price to the next level the 12.5 Fib Level.

Additionally, If you connect a vector from 2 to 4 and draw a parallel ray from 1 to match, it will coincides with the target level as well as an indicator for timing that the price and vector converges. We have about 60 hours until we hit the window for the target and about another 72 hour inside the target window. 27 FEB is Prime Time.

Background info:

I am a huge fan of the Elliott Wave Theory ( EWT ) because when you know the rules, know the ratios and apply the guidelines, its pretty freaking accurate. Here are a few key ratios (converted into decimals for easy calculations) and statistics to note with the EWT .

1) Wave 2 is a correction/retrace of Wave 1. Wave 2 = .38x Wave 1 Length (12% of the time), between .50 - .62x Wave 1 Length (73% of the time), or .62 x Wave 1 (15% of the time)

2) Wave 3 = 1.0 - 1.6 x Wave 1 length (15% of the time), between 1.61 - 1.75x Wave 1 length (45% of the time) or between 1.75 - 2.62x Wave 1 length (30% of the time)

3) Wave 4 is a correction/retrace of Wave 3. Wave 4 = .62x Wave 3 Length (15% of the time), between .30 - .50x Wave 3 Length (60% of the time), between .50 - .62x Wave 3 Length (15% of the time) or greater than .62 x Wave 3 (10% of the time)

4) Here is a simple equation to calculate Wave 5 if Waves 1 and 3 are BULLISH:

Wave 5 length = (A -B value) x 1.382 or (A -B value) x 1.618 (if wave 3 is less than 1.62 then Wave 5 will be extended to 1.68)

A = (price action from the COMPLETION of Wave 4 )
B= (price action at the START of Wave 1)

Length = swing high price - swing low price

(B-A) for bearish Waves 1 and 3
評論: The current Elliot Impulse Wave (1-5) is also forming a falling wedge which is commonly a reversal pattern. Another sign that BTC may be turning bullish soon.

The 5th Wave also has the ability to extend to and beyond 1.618x but this is very uncommon given the previous price action. Just be advised to pay attention as BTC gets closer to the target. Remember, "uncommon" does not mean "never".
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