BTC UPDATE

2023年12月16日

It’s been a while since BTC needed a real thorough update , as price action was linear and frankly we were in a version of easy mode of the market.

Today we wanted to catch your attention on the current price action and chart formations.

After the market sell off kindly provided by a group of whales last week, the price action has been scribbling around and formed a nice triangle pattern format.


Now this triangle pattern is treacherous because it is a well known formation and knowledgable and capable traders (and bots) can take advantage of. In the image you can see the projection of the breakout of this pattern. For those that are not used to this kind of breakout, the dotted lines are the projections of the height of the base of the triangle. We placed projections both ways to give you an idea of the outcome this might have.

To further enhance our analysis we have also chose to add our favorite fibonacci levels that you should probably be used to if you are one of our fans.


On the upside we have a moderate correlation of the projection line with the 1.66 so this is a +1 on the bull scenario

On the downsides we have another +1 for the bear scenario due to the moderate correlation of the projection with the point of confluence which is also known as the POINT OF RETURN

So +1 bear +1 bull but what should our bias be? Maybe «Bias » is an overstatement, or a wrongly chosen word, but we need to take a side if we want to trade. 

Same thing going on for the open interest that is now mediocre at best.

Because the price action in this kind of formation usually breaks at around 75-86% of the formation length, we will assume that the projections are placed correctly.

Why do we favor the bull scenario?
To keep things short and clear :
- Order book is buy heavy
- ETF Looming

When to enter?
Small traders have been burned in the past , with hopes of the prices to go flying when leaving a formation, and I would assume that this is correct like 70% of the time BUT not always, so in order to add a safety measure to the recipe we will only enter when a candle has been closed above the local 0.66 fib . Stop loss at the point of the triangle and the take profit at the 1.66 area.


While this is no guarantee, it is surely a safe trade that can produce pretty nice profits with a RR of 3.

That’s it for today, hope you liked our analysis, if you did, a like won’t hurt.

Keep in touch,
Sublime Traders Trading Team