Bitcoin's Best Worst-Case Scenario

6月16日

Preface: BTC's long-term trend is till bullish, so most likely scenario at this point is a continuation of the trend. Still, it's important to consider different views.

Bitcoin has been trading within the 70k-60k area for the better part of three months at this point. This came after making a (minor) new all-time high. This is the first all-time high that occured before the halving, so rather special.

Worst-case scenario for the bulls would be that we lose the long-term uptrend. Best worst-case would be a strong reversal from the bottom support. This support has been holding for >5 years, so I'd assume that a lot of buyers will be waiting around the support.

If we extrapolate history, Bitcoin should top out somewhere in Q4-2025. A move towards the support during the next few months and then a year of straight bull would fit this view.

More info on how I came to Q4-2025 here:

Do you think Bitcoin is going to make a new all-time high soon? New bear market? Share your thoughts.