Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action + trade plan

6 天前Technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action with multiple indicators and a descending triangle pattern by Blaž Fabjan

Chart Patterns
Descending Triangle: This is a classic pattern that typically suggests consolidation, and in many cases, a breakout (especially when formed in an uptrend). The triangle seems to be nearing the apex, indicating that a breakout could happen soon.
Breakout potential: Since it's forming within an overall uptrend, the triangle suggests the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend after the consolidation.

Indicators
VMC Cipher B: The VMC Cipher B shows wave-like movements indicating market momentum and divergences. It looks like the waves are approaching a positive curve, indicating a potential bullish movement if confirmed by momentum.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 50.49, which shows a neutral trend at the moment. No overbought or oversold conditions are present, leaving room for upward or downward movement depending on the breakout direction.

Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The stochastic shows a level of 43.32 (blue) vs 56.91 (orange), indicating a slight bearish momentum, but it could reverse if price continues consolidating and breaks upwards.

HMA+ Histogram: The histogram appears to show bearish pressure with negative values such as -55.9, though it looks like it may start to shift upwards if there's enough buying momentum.

Volume:
The volume appears lower during consolidation, which is typical before a significant move. Watch for an increase in volume as the price approaches the end of the triangle.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Around 63,800 USDT (marked by the bottom of the triangle).
Resistance: Immediate resistance appears at around 64,200 USDT, the upper trendline of the descending triangle.

Trading Plan:

Breakout Strategy:
Bullish scenario: If BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, enter a long position after confirmation (e.g., after the price breaks above 64,200 USDT with volume). Place a stop-loss slightly below the triangle's bottom at around 63,500 USDT.
Target price: A potential upward target could be around 67,000 USDT (previous high) based on the size of the triangle.

Bearish scenario: If the price breaks below the triangle’s bottom (around 63,800 USDT) with volume, a short position can be considered. In this case, place a stop-loss just above the upper trendline of the triangle (around 64,500 USDT).
Target price: A downside target would be around 62,000 USDT, depending on how strong the downward momentum is.

Risk Management:
Set a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:2, considering the uncertainty of the consolidation period.
Adjust your position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your capital on the trade.

In summary, BTC is consolidating in a descending triangle within an uptrend, and a breakout in either direction is likely. Watch for volume and confirmation before taking a position, and stick to a disciplined risk management plan.