Politics vs Profits | The US elections & Crypto
已更新
Harris, Trump, or Crypto ? Only One Goes Brrrr !
1/ The crypto market typically dips ahead of US elections
In 2016, there was a 10% dip, in 2020, a 6% decline, and so far in 2024, a 6% decrease. However, these drops aren't unusual; they can happen without clear triggers on any given day or week. So attributing extra significance to the current dip due to election is overblown it’s just business as usual in crypto
2/ The election results will trigger either a market boom or bust
Markets crave certainty over specific candidates. Once the election is over, investors can look ahead and allocate accordingly. In the grand scheme, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market don’t care who sits in the Oval Office. Whether it’s a red, blue, or mixed government, historically, crypto trends upward over time.
3/ Trump/Harris will be terrible for the economy
While Republicans and Democrats have vast differences (more so now than ever), unity isn’t our forte. How can we bring the nation together? Maybe start with a common interest and go from there
One thing’s certain, both parties have an affinity for money printing , While it’s a headache for the US’s debt situation, it benefits crypto.Why? Because a share of that newly minted money typically flows into crypto assets, which have limited or predictable inflation.
In essence, money printing devalues the US dollar but bolsters the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.Regardless of who wins, the money printer is expected to stay active.
While election may provide market clarity, it’s not a sure thing. Close elections can take days to finalize. So, if you feel like panicking, just remember this:
Zoom out → stay calm → remember…In the long run, crypto tends to prevail.
November is off to a roaring start with several significant market events – and that’s just in the first week! But before we look ahead, let’s review October to see where we stand:
1/ October Recap
Expectations were high for ‘Moontober,’ and it delivered (though gains were modest).
October saw:
- $ BTC up 11%, with the broader crypto market up 10%
- US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times more
BTC than was mined in October.
This demand and limited supply helped push the total crypto market cap out of an 8 month descending trend, signaling a potential reversal.
2/ Macro Outlook
Now, on to November. This week features two major macro events:
- US Elections – Tuesday, Nov 5th
- Rate Cuts – Thursday, Nov 7th
Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut. Though smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, it could ease market pressure.Lower borrowing costs reduce debt servicing expenses, freeing up cash for spending and potentially boosting both the economy and crypto markets.
The bonus? Historically, Bitcoin’s average return in November is +43%
If this trend holds, we could seeBTC hit 100k by month’s end!
Cross your fingers, toes, and eyes!
3/ Token Unlocks
October had 5.4B worth of token unlocks, creating potential sell pressure. Thankfully, November’s unlocks are lighter at 2.6B, which may limit that pressure.
4/ Earnings Reports
This week brings earnings from:
- Franklin Templeton (managers of the
EZBC Bitcoin ETF)
- Arm (semiconductor architecture designers)
- Qualcomm (wireless tech products)
- Sony (self-explanatory)
But November 20th is the main event, with Nvidia (
NVDA) – the AI powerhouse – reporting earnings.That’s November in a nutshell.
We’ll be here daily with updates as events unfold
1/ The crypto market typically dips ahead of US elections
In 2016, there was a 10% dip, in 2020, a 6% decline, and so far in 2024, a 6% decrease. However, these drops aren't unusual; they can happen without clear triggers on any given day or week. So attributing extra significance to the current dip due to election is overblown it’s just business as usual in crypto
2/ The election results will trigger either a market boom or bust
Markets crave certainty over specific candidates. Once the election is over, investors can look ahead and allocate accordingly. In the grand scheme, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market don’t care who sits in the Oval Office. Whether it’s a red, blue, or mixed government, historically, crypto trends upward over time.
3/ Trump/Harris will be terrible for the economy
While Republicans and Democrats have vast differences (more so now than ever), unity isn’t our forte. How can we bring the nation together? Maybe start with a common interest and go from there
One thing’s certain, both parties have an affinity for money printing , While it’s a headache for the US’s debt situation, it benefits crypto.Why? Because a share of that newly minted money typically flows into crypto assets, which have limited or predictable inflation.
In essence, money printing devalues the US dollar but bolsters the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.Regardless of who wins, the money printer is expected to stay active.
While election may provide market clarity, it’s not a sure thing. Close elections can take days to finalize. So, if you feel like panicking, just remember this:
Zoom out → stay calm → remember…In the long run, crypto tends to prevail.
November is off to a roaring start with several significant market events – and that’s just in the first week! But before we look ahead, let’s review October to see where we stand:
1/ October Recap
Expectations were high for ‘Moontober,’ and it delivered (though gains were modest).
October saw:
- $ BTC up 11%, with the broader crypto market up 10%
- US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times more
BTC than was mined in October.This demand and limited supply helped push the total crypto market cap out of an 8 month descending trend, signaling a potential reversal.
2/ Macro Outlook
Now, on to November. This week features two major macro events:
- US Elections – Tuesday, Nov 5th
- Rate Cuts – Thursday, Nov 7th
Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut. Though smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, it could ease market pressure.Lower borrowing costs reduce debt servicing expenses, freeing up cash for spending and potentially boosting both the economy and crypto markets.
The bonus? Historically, Bitcoin’s average return in November is +43%
If this trend holds, we could see
BTC hit 100k by month’s end!Cross your fingers, toes, and eyes!
3/ Token Unlocks
October had 5.4B worth of token unlocks, creating potential sell pressure. Thankfully, November’s unlocks are lighter at 2.6B, which may limit that pressure.
4/ Earnings Reports
This week brings earnings from:
- Franklin Templeton (managers of the
EZBC Bitcoin ETF)- Arm (semiconductor architecture designers)
- Qualcomm (wireless tech products)
- Sony (self-explanatory)
But November 20th is the main event, with Nvidia (
NVDA) – the AI powerhouse – reporting earnings.That’s November in a nutshell. We’ll be here daily with updates as events unfold
註釋
Pro crypto Bernie Moreno wins the US Senate election in Ohio
交易進行
註釋
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky: President Trump will take office on January 20. Between now and then, the outgoing administration may be busy finalizing rules and filing enforcement actions. Uyeda has a high chance of winning as SEC chairman, while Pierce has a low chance, but Trump is expected to be more willing to bring in his own newcomers. The top crypto policy priority for Trump is dropping the SEC's unjustified enforcement actions and the DOJ's Tornado Cash prosecution.交易結束：目標達成
TEXAS: Governor Greg Abbott says, "Texas is already the home of crypto mining, it should become the crypto capital."
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