BTC forecast based on 2014/17 trend, very much alike?
Like many, I wanted to know the answer to these 3 questions:
a) Were is the top to this current trend (as we are expected a pullback, but when)?
b) What should I expect when this trend's run, top is reached?
c) Are there lessons learnt from the past to apply for the now and the near future?
Hence why I looked back into the 2014 to 2017 cycle.
Right now, I see BTC fluctuating in a range, not wanting to go down and not having enough to break new highs as well.
So can the past help to determine what is next? Surprising enough I found many similarities to the present and I will attempt to demonstrate the similarities.
The similarities are astounding however one has to except a number of assumptions.
Assumptions:
1) We have the 6400 drop equivalent in 2014, as per Nov 2018;
2) We acknowledge that we had the bottom for BTC in Dec 2018;
3) We have a reversal trend, bullish since April 2019; price above the daily 200 ema for 8 weeks + gold cross, etc
Thoughts:
1) If we have a drop from the current price, the next level of support is the 7500 range, but it will not hold long;
2) If the 7500 range doesn't hold, the 6700 range will not hold long either;
3) A drop to the 5800 to 6300 range will hold as it is a strong support line;
Observations:
Note: Pay attention to the fib levels and the resistance lines and key markers in coloured circles.
2018/19 Chart: and compare it with 2014/17 chart;
Going from left to right on the chart.
a) We have a cliff drop, Nov 2018 (as per red dot marker) at the 6450 range. This looks similar to the August 2014 drop.
Both levels are the catalyst for the bottom (2nd red dot) and have similar attributes such as extreme price drop in a short time, high volume, and RSI at extreme bottom level.
In late 2018, then after we have never had a price lower than December 2018 till this day.
Some say we reached the final capitulation at this stage.
b) The bounce. Both charts have the bounce (blue line) from the bottom to almost reach the same level in terms of fib. levels, between 0.618 and 0.786 as per diagram.
c) We see this as also a trend change from bearish to accumulation period there after. One can argue that this period known as capitulation is followed by accumulation.
d) We note that in 2019, we searched for the bottom what seems once, were as 2014/15 it was twice.
e) We have the trend change confirmation line tested twice with both periods, marked by the black circle.
f) The breakout line of accumulation is represented by the blue circle on the blue line. They occur at the same fib. level from the main drop price.
g) In April 2019 we had a upward accumulation channel, in late 2015 to May 2016, we see a pattern that can also be seen as an accumulation channel, where both result in an upward break.
The green circle represents the fib extended level, matching both charts as well near 0.382 (purple breaked lines). Same method applied to both charts.
h) Similarly the fib. extended tool applied to find the next high, represented by the yellow circle. Just a bit of a difference with 2019, its slightly higher projection compared to 2016. Not much though, even though we are
searching for this new high today. If one is to assume we have it, then both charts match this characteristic as well.
i) Moving to the rest of the chart forecast, I applied the fib retracement and extention as per 2016/17 to forecast the new levels which are represented by the black impulse lines and their respected resistance levels and support.
To me this doesn't seem far fetched and makes sense. Lets see how we track against this in the coming months.
Enjoy,
Please place a like if you appreciate this effort.
BTC 2014/2017 Chart >
BTC 2017/2019 Chart >
a) Were is the top to this current trend (as we are expected a pullback, but when)?
b) What should I expect when this trend's run, top is reached?
c) Are there lessons learnt from the past to apply for the now and the near future?
Hence why I looked back into the 2014 to 2017 cycle.
Right now, I see BTC fluctuating in a range, not wanting to go down and not having enough to break new highs as well.
So can the past help to determine what is next? Surprising enough I found many similarities to the present and I will attempt to demonstrate the similarities.
The similarities are astounding however one has to except a number of assumptions.
Assumptions:
1) We have the 6400 drop equivalent in 2014, as per Nov 2018;
2) We acknowledge that we had the bottom for BTC in Dec 2018;
3) We have a reversal trend, bullish since April 2019; price above the daily 200 ema for 8 weeks + gold cross, etc
Thoughts:
1) If we have a drop from the current price, the next level of support is the 7500 range, but it will not hold long;
2) If the 7500 range doesn't hold, the 6700 range will not hold long either;
3) A drop to the 5800 to 6300 range will hold as it is a strong support line;
Observations:
Note: Pay attention to the fib levels and the resistance lines and key markers in coloured circles.
2018/19 Chart: and compare it with 2014/17 chart;
Going from left to right on the chart.
a) We have a cliff drop, Nov 2018 (as per red dot marker) at the 6450 range. This looks similar to the August 2014 drop.
Both levels are the catalyst for the bottom (2nd red dot) and have similar attributes such as extreme price drop in a short time, high volume, and RSI at extreme bottom level.
In late 2018, then after we have never had a price lower than December 2018 till this day.
Some say we reached the final capitulation at this stage.
b) The bounce. Both charts have the bounce (blue line) from the bottom to almost reach the same level in terms of fib. levels, between 0.618 and 0.786 as per diagram.
c) We see this as also a trend change from bearish to accumulation period there after. One can argue that this period known as capitulation is followed by accumulation.
d) We note that in 2019, we searched for the bottom what seems once, were as 2014/15 it was twice.
e) We have the trend change confirmation line tested twice with both periods, marked by the black circle.
f) The breakout line of accumulation is represented by the blue circle on the blue line. They occur at the same fib. level from the main drop price.
g) In April 2019 we had a upward accumulation channel, in late 2015 to May 2016, we see a pattern that can also be seen as an accumulation channel, where both result in an upward break.
The green circle represents the fib extended level, matching both charts as well near 0.382 (purple breaked lines). Same method applied to both charts.
h) Similarly the fib. extended tool applied to find the next high, represented by the yellow circle. Just a bit of a difference with 2019, its slightly higher projection compared to 2016. Not much though, even though we are
searching for this new high today. If one is to assume we have it, then both charts match this characteristic as well.
i) Moving to the rest of the chart forecast, I applied the fib retracement and extention as per 2016/17 to forecast the new levels which are represented by the black impulse lines and their respected resistance levels and support.
To me this doesn't seem far fetched and makes sense. Lets see how we track against this in the coming months.
Enjoy,
Please place a like if you appreciate this effort.
BTC 2014/2017 Chart >
BTC 2017/2019 Chart >
交易進行:
Hi everyone.
It seems I made a mistake when i was going to upload the breakdown pictures.
Hence I will redo this post again as I cannot delete it or edit it.
The key point is, the resistance line for the way up seems to be matching June's 2016 peak is 9500.
It seems I made a mistake when i was going to upload the breakdown pictures.
Hence I will redo this post again as I cannot delete it or edit it.
The key point is, the resistance line for the way up seems to be matching June's 2016 peak is 9500.
評論:
Final chart...back to the original target. Apologies.
交易進行:
This is based on the same behaviors for 2014/2017 period as per above comparisons.
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
