Most Relevant Timeframe for a Trade
• Short-term swing trades (a few days):
• The 2H and 4H timeframes are showing early signs of a potential relief rally.
• Indicators such as Mason’s Satisfaction surpassing its SMA and RSI fluctuating around 50–57 suggest a possible short-term rebound.
• Mid-term swing trades (1–2 weeks):
• The 12H and 1D timeframes indicate potential exhaustion of selling pressure, as seen in Investor Satisfaction values approaching 0.1 (a historically significant buy signal zone).
• However, the MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that the overall market trend is still fragile and requires confirmation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Major support zones:
• 77K–79K: Aligned with LoAVWAP across multiple timeframes (1D, 12H) and near the lower Bollinger Band.
• 75K–76K: A critical support area, corresponding to significant technical and psychological levels.
• Major resistance zones:
• ~84K–85K: An important level to watch for a potential gap fill and technical reaction.
• ~88K–89K: Significant resistance level seen in HiAVWAP from the 6H timeframe.
• 95K–96K: Strong resistance level from the 1D and 12H timeframes.
Potential Scenarios and Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Short to Mid-Term Rebound)
• A breakout above 84K–85K would confirm a short-term recovery.
• Target price range: 88K (HiAVWAP in 6H and 4H), followed by 95K–96K if momentum continues.
• Several indicators, including RSI Bollinger Bands and Mason’s Satisfaction, are signaling a potential short-term push.
Bearish Scenario (Further Decline)
• A break below 77K (LoAVWAP on the 1D chart) would likely accelerate downward movement, with a target towards 75K–76K or even lower.
• The overall MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that unless significant buying pressure emerges, any bounce could be temporary before further downside.
Trading Plan and Risk Management
• Partial entries (DCA) around 75K–78K for medium/long-term positioning, as several indicators suggest extreme oversold conditions.
• Stop-loss below 75K to manage risk in case of extended bearish momentum.
• Profit-taking near 84K–85K, followed by additional scaling out near 88K, given the technical confluence in those regions.
Final Thoughts
• Technical indicators across different timeframes suggest a potential relief rally, but the overall trend remains cautious.
• The 2H and 4H timeframes provide the first signs of recovery, while the 1D and 12H charts show broader selling exhaustion that could lead to a mid-term stabilization.
• Support zones between 75K–78K remain key for buying interest, while resistance at 84K–85K and 88K–96K will determine whether BTC can sustain a stronger uptrend.
• A tactical approach combining short-term trades and disciplined risk management is essential in the current market environment.
• Short-term swing trades (a few days):
• The 2H and 4H timeframes are showing early signs of a potential relief rally.
• Indicators such as Mason’s Satisfaction surpassing its SMA and RSI fluctuating around 50–57 suggest a possible short-term rebound.
• Mid-term swing trades (1–2 weeks):
• The 12H and 1D timeframes indicate potential exhaustion of selling pressure, as seen in Investor Satisfaction values approaching 0.1 (a historically significant buy signal zone).
• However, the MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that the overall market trend is still fragile and requires confirmation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Major support zones:
• 77K–79K: Aligned with LoAVWAP across multiple timeframes (1D, 12H) and near the lower Bollinger Band.
• 75K–76K: A critical support area, corresponding to significant technical and psychological levels.
• Major resistance zones:
• ~84K–85K: An important level to watch for a potential gap fill and technical reaction.
• ~88K–89K: Significant resistance level seen in HiAVWAP from the 6H timeframe.
• 95K–96K: Strong resistance level from the 1D and 12H timeframes.
Potential Scenarios and Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Short to Mid-Term Rebound)
• A breakout above 84K–85K would confirm a short-term recovery.
• Target price range: 88K (HiAVWAP in 6H and 4H), followed by 95K–96K if momentum continues.
• Several indicators, including RSI Bollinger Bands and Mason’s Satisfaction, are signaling a potential short-term push.
Bearish Scenario (Further Decline)
• A break below 77K (LoAVWAP on the 1D chart) would likely accelerate downward movement, with a target towards 75K–76K or even lower.
• The overall MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that unless significant buying pressure emerges, any bounce could be temporary before further downside.
Trading Plan and Risk Management
• Partial entries (DCA) around 75K–78K for medium/long-term positioning, as several indicators suggest extreme oversold conditions.
• Stop-loss below 75K to manage risk in case of extended bearish momentum.
• Profit-taking near 84K–85K, followed by additional scaling out near 88K, given the technical confluence in those regions.
Final Thoughts
• Technical indicators across different timeframes suggest a potential relief rally, but the overall trend remains cautious.
• The 2H and 4H timeframes provide the first signs of recovery, while the 1D and 12H charts show broader selling exhaustion that could lead to a mid-term stabilization.
• Support zones between 75K–78K remain key for buying interest, while resistance at 84K–85K and 88K–96K will determine whether BTC can sustain a stronger uptrend.
• A tactical approach combining short-term trades and disciplined risk management is essential in the current market environment.
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。