BTCUSDT - will there be a breakdown of the 30000 level?

A strong seller sat above the level of $28,470, and for 14 days it has not been able to gain a foothold with a single bar above this level. Local rollback from replay is very likely. To continue the growth, it is necessary to fix the higher level, but after 45% growth without corrections, it will not be easy to do this.

Before lowering the price below, in my opinion, there should be a test of this level of $30,000-30,900
Despite the fact that we have a strong seller holding the price, I believe that this should happen, since there are a lot of Stop Losses collected at these price levels

Not least important is that always
before an aggressive drop, which is expected in the near future, there is usually a false pump, which removes liquidity to buy and rebalances the price - these are opportunities for opening short positions.

Now I am considering two scenarios for the price development to $24,000:

1. After updating the short-term low ($27,500);
2. After updating the high of the previous month ($30,250);