Bitcoin : Scenarios and the Elliott Wave perspective
On every decision point we are going to take, we need to identify some reasons and the main driven factor for the current price structure. If we are able to identify and find the main driven factors, it might be easier for us to identify the scenario and the perspective of doing some analysis. Here is my 2 scenarios which for me is the most logical scenario at this current structure to occurs.
Scenario 1.
This is the more bullish scenario comparing to the other one which I do believe that the price has broken out of the bullish falling wedge and can bring this bias to more upside moves in the future. During the consolidation zone at the correction wave, it's rather difficult to find the valid structure of Elliott wave because there are a lot of glitch that is occurring in the market. The main driven factor that I'm seeing at this condition is when the price had a bounce at the blue region which is the .382 Fibonacci retracement (this area usually becomes the point of interest during the wave 4 flat correction wave). If this scenario is true, the correction structure has done with only ABC simple structure and we might see the 5th wave coming in the near future.
Scenario 2.
This scenario will become the counter of the previous scenario which is more bearish for mid term. Beside the bullishness that I see on the scenario 1, I still feel a little weird to see the price get its 5th wave at current structure because of the breach of the rules of alternation. As we know on the grand cycle which wave 2 is the simple one, the wave 4 might be more complex than current structure. So, be guided by this rules of alternation, I still feel that the bullish falling wedges as the A wave or the leading first wave diagonal with the truncated 5th wave. Considering the wave 4 is likely to go more complex than this structure, we may watch golden pocket zone as the next local bottom for current movement.
So, I'll wait further for the next confirmation of this current moves. Breaks above the interim swing high will give the validity of the scenario 1 while breaks below the blue region which is the .382 Fibonacci level will give the validity of the scenario 2.
Scenario 1.
This is the more bullish scenario comparing to the other one which I do believe that the price has broken out of the bullish falling wedge and can bring this bias to more upside moves in the future. During the consolidation zone at the correction wave, it's rather difficult to find the valid structure of Elliott wave because there are a lot of glitch that is occurring in the market. The main driven factor that I'm seeing at this condition is when the price had a bounce at the blue region which is the .382 Fibonacci retracement (this area usually becomes the point of interest during the wave 4 flat correction wave). If this scenario is true, the correction structure has done with only ABC simple structure and we might see the 5th wave coming in the near future.
Scenario 2.
This scenario will become the counter of the previous scenario which is more bearish for mid term. Beside the bullishness that I see on the scenario 1, I still feel a little weird to see the price get its 5th wave at current structure because of the breach of the rules of alternation. As we know on the grand cycle which wave 2 is the simple one, the wave 4 might be more complex than current structure. So, be guided by this rules of alternation, I still feel that the bullish falling wedges as the A wave or the leading first wave diagonal with the truncated 5th wave. Considering the wave 4 is likely to go more complex than this structure, we may watch golden pocket zone as the next local bottom for current movement.
So, I'll wait further for the next confirmation of this current moves. Breaks above the interim swing high will give the validity of the scenario 1 while breaks below the blue region which is the .382 Fibonacci level will give the validity of the scenario 2.
