🤖 #BTCLIVE - 22.08 - #IDEA 🤖

2022年8月22日

🤖 #BTCLIVE - 22.08 - #IDEA 🤖

TL:DR:

Short-Term (<1 Day)
60:40- Bullish:Bearish

Mid-Term (>1 Day)
30:70
Bullish:Bearish

Long-Term (1 Month
80:20 - Bullish:Bearish

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Bounce nicely off this new trendline that is forming at 20.9k after break down of the ascending wedge to start to a new ascending broadening wedge - although it is in a downtrend here, these are historically pretty bearish. We have just formed a nice bullish divergence as well. With these 2 factors TA wise is looking like a potentially rise to the top end of this new Broad.Asc.Wedge which puts us at 21.9k on the nose. This is also the bottom of the Weekly pivot and notably where alot of new Sell Orders are sitting "coincidentally". It is looking like we might see some bullish relief to these levels before the next big rejection which would likely be to 21k and possibly lower if it breaks through, to about 20.7k and then 20k.

If we lose 21k again from here then this could spell very bad news for bulls and see 20k very quickly - which deeper targets down to potentially 18.5k region.

On a macro level I feel we are reaching the last phase of this bear cycle. with a preferred path of slow down ward consolidation to approx 18.5k before a huge pump up - which would be a very similar scene to the Jan 19 bear exit. This would coincide quite nicely with the DXY coming up to key resistance and a potential big rejection.

Bullish Factors:
+ Bullish Weekly Pivots sitting between 22k to 23K
+ Similar looking pattern on the daily to Jan 2019 that formed the end of the bearish phase.
+ Still holding the 20.7k support
+ Bullish Divergence in play

Bearish Factors:
-Broken down on ascending wedge, bounced and on retest
- Showing same pattern from 18th August that broke down
- Rejected from the 20 and 50 EMA
- Forming an ascending broadening wedge in down trend - bearish
- Challenging the 21.4k resistance
- Large Sell orders at 21.4k and 21.9k

NEWS:
Bull:
+ A new UK Bill can bring crypto into the scope of local payment regulation
+ Breaking: Ethereum Merge Officially Starts, Client Releases Bellatrix And Mainnet Update
bit.ly/3PGmZwP
+ US, Ukraine, and UK lead in overall use of crypto globally, new study reveals [finbold.com] (cryptopanic.com/news/16116052/US-Ukraine-and-UK-lead-in-overall-use-of-crypto-globally-new-study-reveals?utm_source=notifications&utm_medium=webhooks&utm_campaign=telegram)

Bear:
- Bored Apes Approaching Mass Liquidation On BendDAO, Can This Crash Entire NFT Market?
- Euro falls equivalent to the US Dollar for the second time this year.

METRICS (Last 24 hours):
Bull
+ Transfer Volume turned positive
+ Funding Rate turned positive

Bear
- Coinbase Premium turned negative
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned negative

EXCHANGE:
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.

MINERS:
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
Moderately selling
Last Value:
-0.7857449
24H%:
+3%
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
Moderate revenue
Last Value:
0.51784085
24H%:
-1%

ON-CHAIN:
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
Realizing loss
Last Value:
0.9940512
24H%:
+1%

+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
Low long-term holders' movement
Last Value:
0
24H%:
-

- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Capitulation phase where they are currently facing unrealized losses. It indicates the decreasing motive to realize loss which leads to a decrease in sell pressure.
Captulation
Last Value:
-0.0212289
24H%:
+48%

+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by +178.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 15.00% compared to yesterday.
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 7.00% compared to yesterday.

INVESTOR SENTIMENT
- Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively weak in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.

DERIVATIVES
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
Last Value:
0.00074996
24H%:
-109%

- Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
Buy:
0.489591
Sell:
0.510409

- Liquidation - 12551393.40 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Long:
12,551,393.39
Short:
9,587,725.04

/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend
Last Value:
8,422,356,344.99
24H%:
-1%
7D%:
-8%

MARKET SENTIMENT:

Fear & Greed Index - Aug 22, 2022:

Today: 29 (Fear)
Yesterday: 27 (Fear)

Avg. 1W: 33 😣
Avg. 2W: 38 😣
Avg. 1M: 35 😣
Avg. 2M: 27 😱
Avg. 3M: 22 😱
Avg. 6M: 25 😱
Avg. 1Y: 34 😣

🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $21,535
24h Low: $21,127
24h High: $21,665
MC Change: 8.7B (2.1%)
Dominance: 38.4%

24h: 1.8%
7d: -11.9%
14d: -6.3%
30d: -7.0%
60d: 4.0%
200d: -44.5%
1y: -56.2%