Unleashing Potential: Strategic Growth And Innovation Of Celsius

5月4日

Celsius® is a company that was founded in April 2004. It has benefited from the high demand for healthy products without artificial ingredients. It constantly innovates as it expands its portfolio with its scientifically proven beverage lines, and its presence consolidates in the US and reaches international levels. The price performance results in significant progress in market capitalization, leading to its exit from the Russell 2000 index. 


Performance against the S&P 500:

Next, I present my investment thesis based on what you believe about a company. The Seeking Alpha portal data was essential for me to have felt the growth trajectory of it. The analysis focused on specific aspects that indicate the expansive potential of the organization.

CELH is adding to a considerably higher financial challenge compared to an industry median across multiple metrics:

Source: Seeking Alpha

The table showed a detailed view of CELH's financial and operational indicators, which stand out both in relation to the sector average and the company's historical design in recent years. Including aspects such as profit margins, profitability of capital and assets, CAPEX allocation, efficiency and liquidity. It is superior in several areas, mainly in Revenue Growth where it stood out with 227%. Considering this information, profit margins also stand out, as shown by the sector's median indicator, in relation to the CELH percentage, good indexes, etc., exceeding industry expectations and highlighting the effectiveness of management in producing value. The increase in profits is also highlighted in the free cash flow per share, added to the share price performance in 2023, along with the growth in ROE and the operating cash flow growth indicator, showing a remarkable growth outlook. CAPEX is what catches my attention the most, because there was a reduction in business expenses of US$ 17.43 million from the US$ 8.26 million reached a year ago, looking at the performance of other years.


Qualitative analysis:

Deepening the qualitative analysis of the company, I will list points that interpret directly from the 2023 annual report. The organization relies on the experience and commitment of John Fieldly, who, as president and CEO, sets the direction and improves the efficiency of the Celsius holding. The team is made up of: Jarrod Langhans, as CFO, manages finances and supports growth. Tony Guilfoyle, commercial director. Kyle Watson, marketing director. Toby David, team leader. Paul Storey oversees the supply chain. Rich Mattessich looks after legal and compliance. Robin Lybeck and Ronnie Char manage operations in Europe and Asia. Danielle Babich focuses on human capital development. And finally Brant P. Burchfield on sustainable growth.
It has also become more solid in the drinks market by creating alliances with important figures in the sector such as AB InBev, Keurig Dr Pepper and Molson Coors. But the main one is PepsiCo (PEP), resulting in an investment of $550 million.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Annual Reports

Risks:
It is important to highlight that the company, as interesting as it is, has considerable risks and this ends up having an impact in the long term. We will analyze the risks and opportunities below based on the 2023 annual report:

Celsius runs the risk of damaging its brand reputation and losing consumer confidence due to product quality problems, negative publicity or changes in consumer preferences. The drinks sector has been very fierce and the possible emergence of other competitors could be a risk, negatively affecting its market share and possibly the company's profits. In addition, the company has faced difficulties in expanding into new markets, including the fact that other countries are bound by trade barriers and bureaucratic regulations. There is concern about a company's cybersecurity. With the increase in attacks and the dependence on information technology to carry out their operations, as well as data breaches and exposure that cause reputational damage; as well as loss of intellectual property and sanctions and fines for not following compliance. Also mentioned in the annual report, another concern is recalls, which pose risks to brands and regulations.
Source: Annual Reports



Based on my qualitative analysis of the annual report and what I consider to be the company's direction, it seems that it is investing in seizing opportunities in the energy drinks market, especially through strategies with partner companies, such as the partnership with Pepsi, which operates in a very divided environment.However, unnecessary dependence on the partnership represents a significant risk, as any change of mood between them could cause significant financial damage. In addition, the company must continue to modernize its product range to satisfy the growing needs of consumers and not just limit itself to the local market, which in this case is the United States, but also expand its product range to other countries.

Fundamental analysis:



The data shows good progress in its financial health, as evidenced by the consistent growth in its assets from 2020 to 2023. This increase shows continued advancement and planned investments in resources and business opportunities. Net equity also increased, reflecting the company's ability to generate profits and attract investment, strengthening its financial base and market position. The company's total capitalization indicates balanced financing management, combining debt and equity. However, it is important to maintain debt management at viable levels to maintain financial stability. Increased working capital shows good management of financial resources, increasing the company's ability to meet short-term obligations and finance daily operations. Total debt stability is positive as long as the company maintains a good balance between debt and equity.


Market Opinion Technical Analysis:

I will now complement our study with technical analyses. This method is based on the market's trading volume, and to facilitate understanding. I will present a legend that simplifies the analysis, making it clear and concise. Our focus will be on aspects that are aligned with the company's fundamentals, avoiding numbers or patterns that do not add value to the analysis. Investment decisions are made after an in-depth analysis of assets, where investors look for advantages or discrepancies in fundamentals, or data that does not correspond to the company's reality.

Hot and cold candlesticks act as a thermometer to assess the buying and selling transactions that occurred during the trading week. The volume indicator includes the delta variation between buyers and sellers, representing the active flow of assets.

e observe an ascending channel with rising tops and bottoms, indicating that the market retreated with a lower seller flow than the last buyer, thus forming an accumulation band. There is also a notable buyer dominance over the years. Sales volumes appear to be related to profit making or batches that were not continued. With the recent rise, along with the Nasdaq index, we anticipate that the market may pull back before resuming the upward trend.
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Analyzing some articles that talk about Celsius, both are very recent. which discusses the company's rise in relation to Monster and Redbull, and the text emphasizes that even after Celsius' growth, it may suffer a slight slowdown, despite showing a good valuation, and also expresses concern about the company's premium valuation and its ability to sustain growth to justify it. Furthermore, the author projects growth for the company, but is quite cautious about this.

I agree with both opinions and, in fact, the technical analysis they perform complements the pullback view, although they complement each other. What we have to observe is that combining performance and profit, cutting expenses, combined with the boom in the NASDAQ index, we can see a good opportunity to continue buying a company. However, for those who are buying now, they need to be very careful because it is at the top and a correction in the channel's VWAP could occur. Market concerns about Celsius being overbought could drag it to the $42 region before the market resumes its upward trend. I believe that this corrective wave in the market can occur even if the company delivers good numbers, which is normal for any stock.