CHFJPY SHORT

2023年7月26日

The time has come to be short CHFJPY

With inflation numbers in Switzerland now below target and In Japan above target this pair seems completely mis priced. Expecting SNB to stop raising rate. With Boj we do expect some changes in YCC in the next couple of months. These 2 pairs are low yielding pairs, yet the pair is behaving high yield vs low yield. This is not a short term trade, this is a trade you short and leave. BOJ meeting this friday, maybe expect some position squaring pre friday, and any rally is a short for me now.
SHORT TRADE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED

2023年7月26日

交易進行

2023年7月27日

註釋

no reason to close any part of the trade, some news from BOJ re, discuss YCC. There is still a long way to go, i still feel BOJ will almost play catch up with the rest of the world. BOJ insists the inflation is transitory well... look everywhere else how did that work out, a shift in monetary policy i feel is not far around the corner.

2023年7月28日

註釋

ok so what looks like no change from the BOJ there has been a subtle change in ycc control program. Previously there was a strict capping to 0.5% now they will conduct nimble market operations up to 1.0% hence, why got the whipshaw last night, (what looked nothing was actually in fact sometthing)

Still remaining short,

CPI number for Switz coming out on 4TH AUG, could be the driver for the next move in this

2023年7月31日

交易進行

shorting here light

2023年8月25日

註釋

still holding shorts from 166 and 166.30

2023年9月7日

註釋

i am now in full size short

2023年9月27日

註釋

still holding full size short, no reason to get out yet. What we are seeing now is USD based moved. Some jawboning from Japenese officials has slowed down the USD up move in USDJPY. I am still waiting for a YEN move before i start to reduce my position here. SNB did not hike rates and i guess they are done with their cycle, expecting and unwind in this pair and I expect a YEN move also.