Consequences of the love affair with Russian raw materials.

2022年5月15日

Dependence on Russian raw materials; supply chain problems; the New Silk Road likely stalled or postponed; a return to a closer economic alliance with the U.S.; the vision of the ECB raising interest rates; the fastest rising inflation in 40 years; these are a few of the many reasons that could lead to an economic crisis, stagflation, and perhaps even a recession in Germany.

From a technical point of view, on the weekly interval, the price has broken through the cloud, giving a sign for a decline.
On D1, I think that the situation is not yet clear - although the price is under the cloud, which is enough reason to short - because there could be another attack on the cloud, or even an fake breakout.

If the price does not stop near 14000, the next area will be: 14370-14600 - KIJUN LINE from W1. And this is where the KUMO BREAKOUT on the D1 interval may occur.

If the price rebounds from the levels and accepts the continuation of declines, then I will take a position.

Targets are the levels set by the N-wave seen above.
Ultimately, the price, in my opinion, will stop at the last target, with the possibility of extension to the pandemic bottom and the peaks of 2000-2011 - price: 8500-7500.

2022年5月18日

交易進行

First attempt. I opened a trade with stop loss above today's highs.

2022年5月23日

手動結束交易

There is a chance that price will touch the second resistance, around 14400. I prefer to wait and start trading when there is better confirmation.

2022年5月24日

交易進行

Second attempt.

I opened at the 14028 level, which gave me the opportunity to open three times the trade with the same risk as before.