US deaths... Following the IHME model from April 1

This is a very rough approximation of the IHME predictive model of deaths in the US due to COVID-19. I think many still fail to see the scale of the problem. Will be interesting to follow the data as this crisis unfolds.

評論:

Seems like the IHME model keeps getting rolled back every couple of days. As of today, 4/8, the 50th percentile for number of deaths has been decreased to 60,000. I'm going to keep following this model from 4/1, but I suspect there are errors in the model decreasing it's usefulness in predicting resources needed.