The Case for the Dow Jones Breaking the 30,000 level

2023年2月27日

The latest US GDP growth was 2.7% for Q4 2022. Unemployment rate is 3.4% in January 2023. Annual inflation rate is 6.4% in January. Fed Fund Rates is 4.50%-4.75% and climbing. Manufacturing and Industrials are struggling, but not bad. Yearly retail sales minted at 6.4% in January. The Fed Rate Monitor is showing an increase for a 0.25% at a 74.50% probability and for a 0.50% at 25.5% probability. Next month, the US NFP will be released March 10th, along with the unemployment rate; March 14th is the Inflation Rate YoY; March 15th PPI MoM; and finally the FED Interest Rate Decision.

This all looks good for the FED to keep raising rates and the question is, "how long can the DJ keep holding on above the 30,000. Yes the inflation data could potentially come out lower, but I am thinking that the FED thinks they have more room to raise rates and if it is true, that they are planning on raising rates a couple more times after the March Rate Decision, might be what is needed to start hammering the Dow Jones. I am thinking the inflation data before the meeting will push the thought of a 0.50% rate hike higher or lower, depending on what the printing looks like. I give it to the DJ, it is highly resistant and is managing to stay above the 30,000. But it is only a matter of time until it breaks lower.

2023年3月9日

註釋

Price is dropping further and is nearing the 32,000 lvl. Tomorrow is going to let us know if the momentum is going to continue lower based off what the NFP prints.

2023年3月17日

註釋

Price is coming closer and closer to the 30,000 lvl. There are a lot of cracks happening and one of them was the bank failures that happened this week. Central Banks moved quickly to contain the contagion (barz), which they were currently able to. But how long with that sustain? Eventually the money might run out and increase rates are still increasing. For now, I'll watch and see what price does.

2023年4月11日

註釋

Price is being stubborn and does not want to break the 30,000 lvl. With all the uncertainty going on, issues going on, inflation, and increasing rates, I am surprised that price is still holding up. But I think it is only a matter of time before price starts cracking and breaking lower.