Dow Jones: Double-Top Signals Heightened Vulnerability

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed at 41985 on Friday, up 0.08%, maintaining its position above critical support at 41330. The index has dropped more than 6% since the start of the pullback from highs of 45073 in January 2025. The long-term bullish price structure that has lasted over two years remains intact; however, a double-top formation at recent highs and the observed weakness in the current quarter suggest a vulnerability in the long-term price structure, particularly around 42732 and 42248. Should it fail to maintain support at 41330, the index could collapse below the bullish structure. If it holds above this critical support, a temporary rebound targeting 42248, 42732, and 43388 is possible before the price declines again.

Reflecting on past market corrections, the index fell 38% in February 2020 and 22% in January 2022. This time, the situation may differ due to the current political and economic climate shaped by the US administration. If we experience a four-stage pullback, the index could decline to 39062, 36794, and 34526, resulting in a correction of over 23%. Should it fall below 34526, there is potential for a deeper dive into bear territory, reaching 32257 with a correction exceeding 28%.