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VSTOXX: Short Term Up Side Potential

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After 16 month rising stockmarkets there are some market signs indicating a short or medium term consolidation or correction.

Market Gains since February 2016:

- DJIA: 40%
- NASDAQ COMPOSITE: 50%
- DAX: 46 %

Today the VIX is falling to levels unseen since 1993. In the next days and weeks a consolidation or correction could occur. Global volatility indices should rise.

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DJIA

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Volatility plunge sends VIX index to 23-year low
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/volatility-plunge-sends-vix-index-to-23-year-low-509703

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"10" EXTREMELY RARE
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QUOTE:
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Here’s what happened the last time the VIX traded this low
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The CBOE Volatility Index dropped to its lowest level since December 1993 on Tuesday, and history shows it could mark a tremendous buying opportunity for stocks.

According to Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments, the so-called fear index has only closed below the 10 level on 24 trading days in history, with 15 of those days occurring in the last three months. Note, a close below 10 on Tuesday would mark the 25th time in history and 16th occurrence in the last three months.

But while Wall Street weighs whether the low volatility reading could signal a top for the markets, Stutland pointed out that it could actually foreshadow the next leg up in the rally.

"When we see [the VIX] this low, we look at the stock market and it has done fairly well," he explained Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "When we see the VIX trades below 10, usually in the last couple of times [the market has moved about 2 percent higher one month later]."

He also noted that the last time the VIX saw a prolonged period below 10, in November 2006, the S&P 500 rallied 10 percent six months later, and 5 percent one year later.

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VIX: ROCKET STRAIGHT UP BY 20%

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Mueller impanels Washington grand jury in Russia probe: Wall Street Journal
investing.com/news/politics-news/mueller-impanels-washington-grand-jury-in-russia-probe-wall-street-journal-514371

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One year into the FBI's Russia investigation, Mueller is on the Trump money trail
edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/politics/mueller-investigation-russia-trump-one-year-financial-ties/index.html

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Trump's approval rating plunges to new low, poll shows
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Trump's approval rating is down 7 percentage points from the 40 percent rating he received in a similar survey in late June.
It also stated that American voters say 54 to 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president.
cnbc.com/2017/08/03/trumps-approval-rating-plunges-to-new-low-poll-shows.html?recirc=taboolainternal

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MARKET VIEW: WEAK CHINA DATA CREW DOWN STOCKMARKETS
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World stocks shrug off slowing China trade growth to hit record
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-subdued-as-china-trade-disappoints-515628

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VIX:

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VSTOXX: Impressive spike to the upside, 20,81% on August 10th 2017.

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DERIVATIVES-VIX shorts hit new record
reuters.com/article/derivatives-vix-shorts-hit-new-record-idUSL5N1KU4TR

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Comment: All-time record options bets on volatility spook Wall Street over leverage risk
cnbc.com/2017/08/11/all-time-record-options-bets-on-volatility-spook-wall-street-over-leverage-risk.html

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: DIESEL EMISSION SCANDAL
Emissions scandal is a risk to German economy: ministry
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/emissions-scandal-is-a-risk-to-german-economy-ministry-520457

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DJIA: Lower highs, lower lows, gravestone doji. Shortterm sell off likely.

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Money flow: Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest outflow streak since 2004
cnbc.com/2017/08/25/investors-pull-billions-from-us-stocks-in-longest-streak-since-2004.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Traders should remind the "lock up periode" for stock repurchase programs to start in 3-4 weeks from now. Stock buy backs may prevent right now US stockmarkets from more selling pressure. This is going to change within days by end of september if investors might continue to pull money out of US stockmarkets.

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Quote: "The report also pointed out the turn away from U.S. stocks coincided with the late June surge in the euro against the U.S. dollar to its strongest in nearly a year, after comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested higher inflation and tighter monetary policy soon in the euro zone.

The euro subsequently climbed to its highest in more than two years in early August, and traded slightly below those levels near $1.186 Friday. Draghi is scheduled to speak later Friday afternoon at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming."
Source: Link above

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GEOPOLITICS: Trump vs. Government shutdown vs. "The Wall" vs. Mexico
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Trump Repeats Making Mexico Pay for Wall as He Seeks Funding
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-27/trump-recommits-to-make-mexico-pay-for-wall-as-he-seeks-funding
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Remark: Not really difficult to understand that Trump is trying to deliver his widely promised "wall" - but no one is willing to pay for it. For US stockmarkets and the USD this more or less "funny issue" now is turning serious and negative.

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Merkel Opens Door to Diesel Lawsuits as Election Rival Attacks
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-27/merkel-opens-door-to-diesel-lawsuits-as-election-rival-attacks

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GEOPOLITICS: Trumps vs. "The Wall" vs. "China":

Trump reportedly demands China action: 'I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs'
cnbc.com/2017/08/27/trump-reportedly-demands-china-action-i-want-tariffs-and-i-want-someone-to-bring-me-some-tariffs.html

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European shares hit two-week low as euro surges
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-hit-twoweek-low-as-euro-surges-522891

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Dow futures open more than 100 points lower after North Korea fires missile over Japan

North Korea fired a missile over Japan, according to local media.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the ballistic missile passed over the Tohoku region at the northern end of Japan.
Local government urged people living in the area to take refuge in solid buildings or underground shelters, NHK reported.
cnbc.com/2017/08/28/japanese-government-warns-north-korea-missile-headed-toward-northern-japan-report-says.html

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