Another 48h - DXY Is Brimming Bullish
2024/10/23
Another 48h - DXY Is Brimming Bullish
“brimming with self-understanding and self-confidence!
is it bursting now? or just the beginning of a medium-term upswing?”
Since the Fed took a major step in cutting interest rates by 0.5%, COMEX:GC1! & TVC:DXY and capital market interest rates - like TVC:US10Y - have been rising dynamically, sending a clear signal to the US Federal Reserve: "we do not assume that you, that the FED, will lower interest rates quickly and deeply! On the contrary - higher for longer, still!" If you want, you can currently claim that the markets, with rising capital market interest rates, have already more than wiped out the big interest rate cut. Because the money for us end users (especially US Americans) - i.e. consumers and taxpayers (who everybody is, of course) - has actually become more expensive since the Fed's big interest rate cut in September, precisely because of the price action on the financial market. And that shows: the normal effect of an interest rate cut seems to have evaporated - traders and investors apparently have different expectations for the future with regard to the TVC:DXY and/or US Yield Curve - like TVC:US10Y . They may be in fundamental opposition to escalating debt while interest rates are falling. Which is why the stock markets walk a fine line: and because if capital market interest rates continue to rise, the air for stocks becomes increasingly rarefied. Because, since the 50 points rate cut fixed-interest US securities are available with an interest rate of over 4% for various maturities, back again. Which can also apply to the historically overbought COMEX:GC1! at all-time highs! Or?
However - this week there is only us durable goods as important new US economic data. Doesn't everything else have no influence on the price action? No! But I would like to focus in this calendar week, the 5 trading days, on the w formation, and/or also the medium-term high, the long-term historical trend reversal formation. So we have 2 technical factors for the course of the week - to (not) learn something new. And/Or even formulate a long TVC:DXY 4XSetUp? If the TVC:DXY should break out above! In the event of a downward breakout, I don't dare say that today (yet)...
104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - mid-term high
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation
These are the most important technical prices this week.
A breakout near the top and/or down should attract the attention of the bulls and/or bears!? And spark trend-following price dynamics?! And because we only get very important US economic data on Friday this week that could fundamentally justify bullish or bearish price dynamics, the price action is likely to continue to move sentimentally over the course of the week.
After a weak start to the stock market week for stocks around the world, the more pessimistic tones did not subside on Wednesday. The stock markets are currently facing headwinds from rising market interest rates in the United States. Uncertainty ahead of the upcoming US elections appears to be increasing. Against this background, our German stock market, the XETR:DAX , lost 0.23 percent to 19,377.62 points today, on Wednesday. Nonetheless, let our 4 open daily long XETR:ADS & XETR:CBK & XETR:BMW & XETR:DTE 4XSetUps of the XETR:DAX continue to run - with corresponding target prices and/or stop prices.
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - high while last Inflation Data
102.720 points - (2024/10/10) - low while last Inflation Data
102.624 points - (2024/10/04) - high while last Labor Market Report
101.855 points - (2024/10/04) - low while last Labor Market Report
The latest us unemployment rate and/or us inflation rate played into the hands of the bullish TVC:DXY traders and investors. Therefore, a price action above should generally continue to be bullish for the TVC:DXY ! Or?
However, these 4 questions need to be answered - in the next 48 hours and/or later. So that we can learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. But let’s not allow ourselves to be put under time pressure. Let's give ourselves - and the market (i.e. the price action) time - until the us elections. The influence of which I cannot formulate let alone quantify! But no one assumes that they have no influence! Are you?
The last price action was at 104.503 points.
The low of the w formation is at 102.160 points.
The high of the w formation is at 104.447 points.
Since 0700 a.m. (New York time) this morning, the US bulls have been fighting the US bears to break out of the W formation - at 104.447 points. The upward trend is intact - but in my personal opinion, instinctively emotionally too steep, too high. Although when viewed soberly, we can also perceive it as stable. But 16 bullish trading days compared to 2 red trading days - after the annual low on Friday, September 27, 2024, speaks volumes! This upward trend is not the norm. Why? Because the FED has started to lower interest rates - and the various asset classes, such as currencies, bonds, and or even the stock market, do not price in the scenario of a soft landing, an outbreak of the US economy from US stagflation. Tends to have a cheaper US Yield Curve; tends to have an more expensive US stock market. I also dont understand this - cant explain it. But i understand that the TVC:DXY is rising! "The FED can do it!" - as the leading central bank of our so-called West. Still moving forward with monetary policy - reacting accordingly to US fiscal policy. But the price action is negotiated by investors and traders. And they react asymmetrically.
Whatever - the first thing that matters for bulls are the 104.799 points.
Which was last week in July 2024. Until August, including September, up to October today, our daily themed W formation was formed. Because when we calculate the 104.799 points, let alone a price action above, we can actually argue in retrospect that the W formation has been completed for the time being. And for the other side - a cheaper price action in the TVC:DXY until to 103.650 points - again within the W formation - would basically not be bad. Because the 103.650 points were the last low, before the last high, before the w formation formed. So a fall back to 103.650 points and then finally get out of the W formation would be the best scenario for the TVC:DXY. It would be even healthier, at least in my opinion, if the TVC:DXY recovers in the coming days to as low as 103.447 - the weekly low from Sunday this week. Yes, even a fall to 103.104 points wouldn't be bad, only to then turn up again at the level of the price action after the publication of the last US inflation rate. So we could then add fundamental reasons for a continued more expensive US dollar. But to use fundamental arguments we first wait for the us durable goods on Friday. So long story short - basically there is a tendency to stay rather bullish than bearish in the TVC:DXY. But (still) no long DXY 4XSetUp (yet)...
With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the TVC:DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
Another 48h - DXY Is Brimming Bullish
“brimming with self-understanding and self-confidence!
is it bursting now? or just the beginning of a medium-term upswing?”
Since the Fed took a major step in cutting interest rates by 0.5%, COMEX:GC1! & TVC:DXY and capital market interest rates - like TVC:US10Y - have been rising dynamically, sending a clear signal to the US Federal Reserve: "we do not assume that you, that the FED, will lower interest rates quickly and deeply! On the contrary - higher for longer, still!" If you want, you can currently claim that the markets, with rising capital market interest rates, have already more than wiped out the big interest rate cut. Because the money for us end users (especially US Americans) - i.e. consumers and taxpayers (who everybody is, of course) - has actually become more expensive since the Fed's big interest rate cut in September, precisely because of the price action on the financial market. And that shows: the normal effect of an interest rate cut seems to have evaporated - traders and investors apparently have different expectations for the future with regard to the TVC:DXY and/or US Yield Curve - like TVC:US10Y . They may be in fundamental opposition to escalating debt while interest rates are falling. Which is why the stock markets walk a fine line: and because if capital market interest rates continue to rise, the air for stocks becomes increasingly rarefied. Because, since the 50 points rate cut fixed-interest US securities are available with an interest rate of over 4% for various maturities, back again. Which can also apply to the historically overbought COMEX:GC1! at all-time highs! Or?
However - this week there is only us durable goods as important new US economic data. Doesn't everything else have no influence on the price action? No! But I would like to focus in this calendar week, the 5 trading days, on the w formation, and/or also the medium-term high, the long-term historical trend reversal formation. So we have 2 technical factors for the course of the week - to (not) learn something new. And/Or even formulate a long TVC:DXY 4XSetUp? If the TVC:DXY should break out above! In the event of a downward breakout, I don't dare say that today (yet)...
104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - mid-term high
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation
These are the most important technical prices this week.
A breakout near the top and/or down should attract the attention of the bulls and/or bears!? And spark trend-following price dynamics?! And because we only get very important US economic data on Friday this week that could fundamentally justify bullish or bearish price dynamics, the price action is likely to continue to move sentimentally over the course of the week.
“The financial markets generally are unpredictable . . . The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”
George Soros
After a weak start to the stock market week for stocks around the world, the more pessimistic tones did not subside on Wednesday. The stock markets are currently facing headwinds from rising market interest rates in the United States. Uncertainty ahead of the upcoming US elections appears to be increasing. Against this background, our German stock market, the XETR:DAX , lost 0.23 percent to 19,377.62 points today, on Wednesday. Nonetheless, let our 4 open daily long XETR:ADS & XETR:CBK & XETR:BMW & XETR:DTE 4XSetUps of the XETR:DAX continue to run - with corresponding target prices and/or stop prices.
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - high while last Inflation Data
102.720 points - (2024/10/10) - low while last Inflation Data
102.624 points - (2024/10/04) - high while last Labor Market Report
101.855 points - (2024/10/04) - low while last Labor Market Report
The latest us unemployment rate and/or us inflation rate played into the hands of the bullish TVC:DXY traders and investors. Therefore, a price action above should generally continue to be bullish for the TVC:DXY ! Or?
- Does The DXY Break Out Of The W-Formation High?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Does The DXY Break Down Of The W-Formation Low?
However, these 4 questions need to be answered - in the next 48 hours and/or later. So that we can learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. But let’s not allow ourselves to be put under time pressure. Let's give ourselves - and the market (i.e. the price action) time - until the us elections. The influence of which I cannot formulate let alone quantify! But no one assumes that they have no influence! Are you?
The last price action was at 104.503 points.
The low of the w formation is at 102.160 points.
The high of the w formation is at 104.447 points.
Since 0700 a.m. (New York time) this morning, the US bulls have been fighting the US bears to break out of the W formation - at 104.447 points. The upward trend is intact - but in my personal opinion, instinctively emotionally too steep, too high. Although when viewed soberly, we can also perceive it as stable. But 16 bullish trading days compared to 2 red trading days - after the annual low on Friday, September 27, 2024, speaks volumes! This upward trend is not the norm. Why? Because the FED has started to lower interest rates - and the various asset classes, such as currencies, bonds, and or even the stock market, do not price in the scenario of a soft landing, an outbreak of the US economy from US stagflation. Tends to have a cheaper US Yield Curve; tends to have an more expensive US stock market. I also dont understand this - cant explain it. But i understand that the TVC:DXY is rising! "The FED can do it!" - as the leading central bank of our so-called West. Still moving forward with monetary policy - reacting accordingly to US fiscal policy. But the price action is negotiated by investors and traders. And they react asymmetrically.
Whatever - the first thing that matters for bulls are the 104.799 points.
Which was last week in July 2024. Until August, including September, up to October today, our daily themed W formation was formed. Because when we calculate the 104.799 points, let alone a price action above, we can actually argue in retrospect that the W formation has been completed for the time being. And for the other side - a cheaper price action in the TVC:DXY until to 103.650 points - again within the W formation - would basically not be bad. Because the 103.650 points were the last low, before the last high, before the w formation formed. So a fall back to 103.650 points and then finally get out of the W formation would be the best scenario for the TVC:DXY. It would be even healthier, at least in my opinion, if the TVC:DXY recovers in the coming days to as low as 103.447 - the weekly low from Sunday this week. Yes, even a fall to 103.104 points wouldn't be bad, only to then turn up again at the level of the price action after the publication of the last US inflation rate. So we could then add fundamental reasons for a continued more expensive US dollar. But to use fundamental arguments we first wait for the us durable goods on Friday. So long story short - basically there is a tendency to stay rather bullish than bearish in the TVC:DXY. But (still) no long DXY 4XSetUp (yet)...
With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the TVC:DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
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