美元指數已更新 DXY Bounce to 93/94
Provided DXY can clear the inclined resistance, we will see a re-visitation of the 93-94 level, with real consequences across the board for commodities.
Continuation of a bearish downtrend should resume if this plays out into February, with a deciding point potentially playing out into August.
Fundamentally I expect a year of spending/money printing to weaken the dollar to below the critical levels where both inclined supports converge.
This path may be invalidated if we go far above the 94 levels. My preferred scenario is that we might see a descending triangle, where the current bounce in DXY is contained and continues downward pressure on its current support level (89).
Continuation of a bearish downtrend should resume if this plays out into February, with a deciding point potentially playing out into August.
Fundamentally I expect a year of spending/money printing to weaken the dollar to below the critical levels where both inclined supports converge.
This path may be invalidated if we go far above the 94 levels. My preferred scenario is that we might see a descending triangle, where the current bounce in DXY is contained and continues downward pressure on its current support level (89).
註釋
Notice my latest GOLD overview, where we discuss the implications of a 94+ DXY and how only the initial rise will be a negative, before rising from support in March. I think gold can survive much more than 94
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