The US Dollar started to price in the 27th July rate hike. We are heading to the top of the range.
Next week we are going to break 96.70 and the next resistance zone is 98.50.
Here comes the big question: will we be able to break 98.50?
Maybe yes, maybe not. In the last few weeks the dollar was quite weak. After coming back from the bear trap below the range (2016. May) it came back again to the bottom of the range at beginning of June (A) and again in the middle of June (B). It shows weakness to me. FED is printing like crazy before the elections. Brexit saved the dollar from the decline. I'm afraid that even if we break 98.50 we will not be able to tag the top of the range.
So during the next week -week and a half the dollar will be topping and heading into a decline below the range.
I set this post as neutral because I think we are going to rally for a week or week and a half, and after that this is a "short vehicle".
Next week we are going to break 96.70 and the next resistance zone is 98.50.
Here comes the big question: will we be able to break 98.50?
Maybe yes, maybe not. In the last few weeks the dollar was quite weak. After coming back from the bear trap below the range (2016. May) it came back again to the bottom of the range at beginning of June (A) and again in the middle of June (B). It shows weakness to me. FED is printing like crazy before the elections. Brexit saved the dollar from the decline. I'm afraid that even if we break 98.50 we will not be able to tag the top of the range.
So during the next week -week and a half the dollar will be topping and heading into a decline below the range.
I set this post as neutral because I think we are going to rally for a week or week and a half, and after that this is a "short vehicle".
評論:
So far so good...
