看多

Long term Dollar DXY Analysis

已更新

If you fallowed my work i like to base my long term direction based on macro, education and cycles.

Dollar has very predictable cycles, the dollar is early in its current cycles and its very right translated (bullish).
The scenario we have in the world with the WAR on carbon, has made it so people dont look to explore for commodities
that have a bad carbon balance, this has and will creat big shortages. The fundamentals for inflation is there.

What people dont understand is that everything is priced in dollars, when dollars goes up, everything goes down since its
priced in dollars and opposite when it drops everything, specially commodites goes up. Dollar dropping is not a good thing,
this will creat more inflation, and with the terrible energy politics of the west this is can only end bad.

My Ideas are not shorterm its long term, 5-7years into the future, but i usally get them right based on experience, education and cycle work.

In my oppinion the right thing to do now is to wait and get your money ready, when it turns comodites will dropp and we get shorting opportunities,
and when it drops again we get buying opportunities.

Also i advice new traderes to lear about COTs its a good tool to grasp what the big players are doing, the big players move the market,
not technical indicators or pattern of animals on the chart. Its lagging, and we want to be inn before the zoo wathcers get the signal.
Plan, wait, get in early, enjoy the ride and sel high. Rinse and repeat.

Fallow and like if you like my ideas, thanks for the time.

註釋

Price action has confirmed our analysis so far, and we made sure we didnt get cought on the wrong side of the trade. Lets see if we can creat a base and get som clues from COT data and get a entry. It stil has time to run 2-3months on the upside before timingband on cycles become risky.

Patient and control emotion, consistency. No emotions, we trade and we trade whereever the opportunty is.

註釋

We are looking for price to cross the 200 (4hour)ma and get aboive the 104 level.
Also we suspect that since the COTs have been neutral, it will play out with a tight range of accumulation before it can go again. Cyclebands shows 1-3 weeks of time before the cycle is up. Stil downside risk but its getting less risiker for each week that goes by.

註釋

Can this correction be a bullflag? what you think?
It will take us to 124levels if this play out :)

註釋

Dollar have so far tested the majort support, would like to se a base, and COTs will be out today and we need to see evidence that the major players are closing short and going long.

My cycle system has generated next week as a potential major low.

註釋

Looks like its makeing a base. Again we want the 21MA to brak and we trade the pullback.

I dont trade currency pairs but you can if you analyse sepratly to currencys.

Remmeber dollar is investing bcause everything is priced in dollars, everything goes down when dollars goes up, gold ex is inverse to the dollar, when dollar drop alot it goes up, when dollar is storng its weak.

註釋

Dollar need to a strong run with two weeks time or my models shows bearish pressure until april.

TradingIsNotGambling