Another 48h - Bears Are Putting Pressure On DXY With -0.5% Today

2024/12/05
Another 48h - Bears Are Putting Pressure On DXY With -0.5% Today
“fiscal policy weakness in france and/or political weakness in germany!
but the eur is holding up truly well for that? dxy pretty weak? inst it?”



The same questions regarding the topic of France's fiscal policy - regarding the price action in the DXY . It is to be expected that opposition right-wing and left-wing populists will not allow themselves to be integrated into an unpopular austerity policy like Macron and Barnier tried in times of need. Which is why I perceive in political France what has begun to build up in our so-called West since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 - and has begun to establish itself since 2010, the beginning of the Euro crisis. A green conservatism, under the guise of freedom, which more and more political left-wingers, let alone political right-wingers, are voting out. And by which the now established political media, almost all of which now seem to be green, are (un)rightly denounced as left-wing radical and/or right-wing radical. Of course, Macron is not to blame for the powerful trends toward polarization and precarization that are giving such parties a massive boost across Western democracies. I believe that the cause can also be found in my home country Germany, under the direction of our former Chancellor Merkel, who with her asymmetrical demobilization policy by appropriating the issues of political competition (such as the politics of the Greens and/or Social Democrats) for herself and realized their ideas in law and orders. And I assume also, that that's why “Far-right standard bearers gambled that shaping events would convince voters her party was ready for power”, as Financial Times today wrote. And that at the price that the so-called center, as in France, only holds together in power for its own sake - in order not to let the decidedly left and/or right take control of the political leadership. However, it is how it is, “as Le Pen gambles on felling French government, her far-right protege's star rises”, as Reuters headlines today. The problem with Macron is the problem of a political system, like France, where several parties have to form a political coalition to lead the country in question - quite the opposite of the USA. Where, thanks to the "Inner takes it all" principle, Trump can rule fully from January 2025 - with a political majority in both the House and Senate. Which is why the USA, in our so-called West, if you will, is apparently the cleanest shirt of all shirts in terms of economic policy; if I'm not mistaken. At least when it comes to economic growth - and also the price action on the stock market. So we'll stay excited - and full of joy, certainly with me - until Trump gets going again in the office in January 2025. But there is still a long time to go until then - and this weekend France's president will be pompously fine-tuning the restoration of Notre-Dame Cathedral - and Trump is also invited, along with Zelensky and other world leaders. The French president has been planning the reopening of the Paris landmark, which was badly damaged by fire, in April 2019 for many months as a glorious self-dramatization. Despite the skeptics, the colossal task of restoration was accomplished in just five years, as Macron had promised. And now, at the end of a difficult political year for him in 2024, the reopening of Notre-Dame should and will also herald the political resurrection of Emmanuel Macron. Hopefully the political comeback, with a pinch of realistic optimism, for the year 2025, for all of us in our so-called West, with the USA and/or also Great Britain, Anglo-Saxons at the top, and France here on mainland Europe, so that we all in the public media start better to dealing with politics, the economy and society to send us back into the future with realistic optimism.

• Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
  

This was the learning question of last week. And we have to say very clearly: "It was the bears!" Because on all 5 trading days of last week the bears recaptured the current territory in the DXY . Whether this is a medium-term trend reversal for the coming days, even weeks? Or was it just a week of consolidation to continue rising? That remains to be seen.

“Economic theory is devoted to the study of equilibrium positions. The concept of equilibrium is very useful. It allows us to focus on the final outcome rather than the process that leads up to it. But the concept is also very deceptive. It has the aura of something empirical: since the adjustment process is supposed to lead to an equilibrium, an equilibrium position seems somehow implicit in our observations. That is not true. Equilibrium itself has rarely been observed in real life — market prices have a notorious habit of fluctuating.”
George Soros

• Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
  
• Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
  

The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Last week the bears took over. Pathbreaking for this week, maybe even by the end of the year, after DXY closed at 105.782 points last weekend, is even the first annual high of 2024 and/or the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation with 104.447 points from 2024/08/01. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 is continuing. While a price action back below into the w trend reversal formation should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .


New weekly low of 105.699 points in today's daily business.
Not a broken leg - because the low of last week, last Friday, November 29th, 2024, was 105.615 points. But the price action of the last few days, including last week, does not indicate an increasing price action. For better or worse, the sentiment towards the EUR just seems to be too bearish; vice versa too bullish for the USD because of Trump. Therefore, all professional traders and/or investors should already be positioned accordingly. So there is no big movement at the moment, as even more pessimistic EUR bears, let alone even more bullish USD bulls, to continue the trend up or down, simply seem to be missing at the current time, around this price action. We are therefore waiting for tomorrow's US unemployment rate and/or US consumer sentiment from UNI Michigan. Nonetheless, today's low of 105.699 points should hold and/or last week's low from Friday, November 29th. at 105.615 points. Because the next important price action of 105.441 is already the intraday high from November 6th, 2024 - the day of Donald Trump's election day.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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