The first day of the month and the quarter can often result in strong one-way moves, known as trend days. The opening range on a day like today holds significant importance for me and determines the direction I will be playing. Taking a broader look at the charts and observing the daily timeframe, here's what I notice: the top Bollinger Band has started to contract, while the bottom Bollinger Band continues to expand (indicating a potential upcoming low, but not confirmed yet). We experienced a gap-up open on Sunday night that failed to maintain momentum into Monday's open. Additionally, the failure to hold the 5-day moving average is noteworthy. The bottom Bollinger Band has dropped below the YTD Anchored VWAP, making it a key level to watch around 4228. I wouldn't be surprised if that level is tested this month. If the Bollinger Bands align favorably on the daily chart, I would anticipate swing long setups around that area and consider adding some SPY to my long-term portfolio.
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SPY
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SPY