SPX - Prepare for bounce

I think a bounce bounce to 4100 or more is coming as part of the larger triangle structure. RSI is quite low and the price action is choppy - like they are winding up for a move out of the channel. 4100 or more would certainly convince bulls that "all is well" and the uptrend WILL continue, but I don't think that would be the case. If anything, 4100 is an ideal short for a larger move down to 3700-3600.

Good luck!

註釋

potential inverted head and shoulders bottom also pointing to 4100 target

註釋

i think we're in a triangle because of all this chop, however triangles can be in a wave 4 as well as B, so one more low IS POSSIBLE into tomorrow or thursday. Please be careful of any breakouts here.

註釋

to the channel boundary again, watch for breakout, if the breakout fails, we're probably going lower first.

註釋

rejection from channel again. The channel is deciding whether we will rally or not - at this time, not. We'll have to see how the overnight looks. This channel is most visible on futures

註釋

another rejection on futures at the channel boundary this morning. obviously, if they can get over the channel and hold above it today or tomorrow it would start the rally

註釋

2 potential trendlines below, 3900 to me is the most important level, but 3930ish could also come into play.

註釋

mini downtrend currently broken and retested, might be a sign I don't know yet.

註釋

SPY showing an inverted hammer and a spinning top on the daily - maybe signs of a reversal. Tomorrow Jobs numbers will probably tell more. I still think there will be a bounce, but the weakness on every rally is concerning for bulls. Regardless, 3900 should be strong support if the market tanks tomorrow with the numbers.

註釋

more downside overnight - more weakness. In cases like this a flush/spike down should be expected. Similar to when markets creep up. This spike may come today. I expect that we break 3900 and then bounce after capitulation.

註釋

they are trying to break out, continuation into tomorrow and it will likely be the beginning of the B wave like I talked about in the video.

註釋

looks good so far for bulls. Target around 4040-4050 (18 daily ma) at least if this continues. 4000 area has weekly and daily MA's so they may have some trouble in this area.