Will ES continue higher?

2022年2月1日

We have another green day today and ES again close at high, ES has been above the 50% retracement of whole drop. Of course there is nothing indicating a short term reached yet, and as a matter of fact, I still like to see 4580 range hit sooner rather than later. But from past fractal, minimum target of wave (A) is hit with 4550 reached, consider market like to do some minor high during overnight session then pullback into early morning, so we need to be prepared that tomorrow could be the first down day that is targeting ideally 4390~4415 next. If that indeed happens, I expect the drop will be done before EOW, and we will be targeting 4640~4700 next after that. But of course this (A) wave may not be done yet, and as long as today's low holds, we could be rallying another day or two into the ideal 4580 range before the expected pullback starts. Nevertheless, now it's time to reduce the long accumulated from bottom of 4212 or 4265 range, and add some hedge puts for remaining long position, make position sort of delta neutral in this range (or slightly positive to capture the next 30~60 pts) is wise thing to do IMHO.

2022年2月2日

註釋

So 4580 reached before market open, but in order to confirm the (B) wave already started, ES minimally needs to go below 4500~4520 range. Also note this range is now the micro support so a bounce from that range (if we can reach there at all today) is totally reasonable. As long as we do not close above 4580 today, I am leaning toward this (B) already started, otherwise, it all start over again tomorrow.